Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 4/10/26 MLB Picks Today

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Friday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Arizona Diamondbacks will send out Michael Soroka for the start here and Soroka is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 13 strikeouts this season. In his career, Soroka is 1-1 with a 5.68 ERA and 18 strikeouts against the Phillies. Jesus Luzardo will start here for Philadelphia and is 1-1 with a 4.97 ERA and 18 strikeouts this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks come into this game looking to add on to their 7-1 win over the New York Mets last time out to sit at 7-6 this season. After this series, the Diamondbacks will head on the road again for a series against the Baltimore Orioles.

Diamondbacks Win Another Series To Start Year

Going into Wednesday’s finale against New York, Corbin Carroll leads the Diamondbacks with 11 hits including a double, 2 triples, 2 home runs and a team-high 9 RBIs while Alek Thomas has logged 3 doubles with 4 RBIs as well this season. Ketel Marte has 9 hits with 2 doubles, a home run and 3 RBIs and Geraldo Perdomo has 6 hits, with 2 doubles, a home run and 3 RBIs as well this season. Gabriel Moreno also has 9 hits with 23 doubles and Jose Fernandez has 2 home runs and 4 RBIs this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to shake off a 5-0 loss at the hands of San Francisco in Wednesday’s series finale to sit at 6-6 on the year. After this series, the Phillies will take on the Chicago Cubs in a set at home.

Phillies Lose Back-To-Back Games

Entering Wednesday’s matchup with the Giants, Adolis Garcia has 10 hits with a pair of doubles, 2 home runs and 4 RBIs while Kyle Schwarber has 7 hits with 2 doubles, 3 home runs and 6 RBIs. Brandon Marsh has 11 hits with 3 doubles, a home run and 6 RBIs while Justin Crawford also has 11 hits with 2 doubles and an RBI. Trea Turner has 13 hits with 4 doubles and Bryce Harper’s added 9 hits with 3 doubles, 2 home runs and 7 RBIs this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: April 10, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jesus Luzardo      Record this season: 1-1      ERA: 4.97
• Home Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 2-1

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Diamondbacks have lost eight of their last nine night games against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have won each of their last seven games as home favorites against NL West opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last seven night games against NL West opponents following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six night games against NL East opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against NL East opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Michael Soroka      Record this season: 2-0      ERA: 0.90
• Road Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Phillies: 1-1

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won each of their last three games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Phillies have lost three of their last four games as favorites.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last 19 games as road underdogs following a win.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against the Diamondbacks at Citizens Bank Park following a loss.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the Phillies’ last five games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Diamondbacks’ last three games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the last nine games between the Diamondbacks and Phillies.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last four games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in two of the Phillies’ last three home games against the Diamondbacks.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances with the Phillies as favorites against NL opponents.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last nine appearances with the Phillies as favorites.
• Adolis Garcia has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Ildemaro Vargas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances in night games.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit a home run in three of his last seven road appearances against the Phillies.
• Michael Soroka ranks T3rd in the league for Wins (2) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank T1st in the league for walks allowed this season (26).
• The Phillies rank 27th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.264).
• The Diamondbacks rank T1st in the league for triples this season (5).
• The Diamondbacks rank T2nd in the league for doubles this season (28).

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

I’m on the under in this one. I think this is a great pitching matchup, with Luzardo going here against a Diamondbacks team that’s been up and down against lefties, while Michael Soroka’s been off to a strong start this season. The bullpens can always get a bit dicey, but I think the starters do enough to put us in a good position for an under here. Give me the under.