Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 4/14/26 MLB Picks Today

The Chicago Cubs and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Monday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Chicago Cubs will send out Riley Martin for the start here and Martin is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 3 strikeouts this season. This will be Martin’s first career start against the Phillies. Aaron Nola will start here for Philadelphia and is 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA and 19 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Cubs, Nola is 3-1 with a 3.77 ERA and 35 strikeouts.

Chicago Cubs Recap

The Chicago Cubs come into this game looking to bounce back from a 13-7 loss to Philadelphia in Monday’s series opener to fall to 7-9 this season. After this series, the Cubs will head home for a series against the New York Mets.

Cubs Looking To Bounce Back

Entering Monday, Ian Happ has 10 hits with 2 doubles and a team-high 4 home runs and 7 RBIs while Alex Bregman has 13 hits with 2 home runs and 6 RBIs. Nico Hoerner’s added 18 hits with 7 doubles, a home run and 10 RBIs and Moises Ballesteros has 10 hits with a pair of home runs and 6 RBIs. Pete Crow-Armstrong’s also added 12 hits with a home run and 4 RBIs as well on the year. Carson Kelly has also contributed 12 hits with 3 doubles and 4 RBIs.

Philadelphia Phillies Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to add on to their win over the Cubs from Monday to sit at 8-8 this season. After this series, the Phillies will take on the Atlanta Braves at home.

Phillies Alternate Wins & Losses In 4 Straight

Going into Monday’s opener, Adolis Garcia has 11 hits with a pair of doubles, 2 home runs and 4 RBIs while Kyle Schwarber has 11 hits with 3 doubles, 4 home runs and 9 RBIs. Brandon Marsh has 14 hits with 3 doubles, 2 home runs and 9 RBIs while Justin Crawford also has 15 hits with 4 doubles, a triple and an RBI. Trea Turner has 16 hits with 4 doubles, a home run and 5 RBIs and Bryce Harper’s added 15 hits with 5 doubles, 3 home runs and 10 RBIs this season.

The Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: April 14, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola      Record this season: 1-1      ERA: 3.63
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Cubs: 3-1

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Cubs have lost each of their last eight road games against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have won each of their last four home games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have covered the run line each of their last four home games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in four of their last five games as favorites against the Cubs at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last eight Tuesday games as home favorites.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Riley Martin      Record this season: 0-0      ERA: 0.00
• Road Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Phillies: –

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Phillies have lost nine of their last 11 games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Cubs have won seven of their last eight road games against NL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last eight road games against NL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine home games.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five night games against NL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs’ last four night games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Phillies’ last five games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last seven games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the last six games between the Cubs and Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in three of the Phillies’ last four home games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last 10 home appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Brandon Marsh has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Aaron Nola has recorded a win in six of his last seven appearances with the Phillies as favorites against the Cubs.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks T2nd in the league in Home Runs (6) this season.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Dansby Swanson has hit a home run in each of the Cubs’ last two games.
• Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against NL East opponents.
• Nico Hoerner ranks T9th in the league in Steals (5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank T2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (39).
• The Phillies rank 3rd in the league for strikeouts this season (164).
• The Cubs rank 4th in the league for walks this season (77).
• The Cubs rank T4th in the league for hits allowed this season (116).

Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

I’m backing the Phillies here. I just think Philadelphia’s the better team in this matchup by a fair margin and while I’m not the biggest fan of Aaron Nola, I still think that he’s the better starting option here whether Martin goes extended innings or is just used as an opener. I’ll back the Phillies at home once again here.