Miami Marlins (77-81) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (93-65)
September 25, 2025 6:05 pm EDT
The Line: Philadelphia Phillies -169 / Miami Marlins +138; Over/Under: 9
(Get latest betting odds)
The Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Thursday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Phillies vs Marlins Prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Miami Marlins will send out Janson Junk for the start here and Junk is 6-3 with a 4.27 ERA and 73 strikeouts this season. This will be Junk’s first career start against Philadelphia. The Philadelphia Phillies will trot out Walker Buehler here and Buehler is 9-7 with a 5.13 ERA and 90 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Marlins, Buehler is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 34 strikeouts.
Miami Marlins Recap
The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to rebound from an 11-1 loss at the hands of the Phillies in Wednesday’s matchup to slide to 77-81 this season. After this series, the Marlins will head home for a series against the New York Mets.
Marlins Have Seven-Game Win Streak Snapped
Xavier Edwards has 153 hits including 20 doubles and a team-high 26 stolen bases while Eric Wagaman has 118 hits with 27 doubles. Otto Lopez has 131 hits with 20 doubles and 15 home runs with 77 RBIs. Kyle Stowers has 115 hits with 21 doubles, 3 triples, 25 home runs and 73 RBIs but also has 125 strikeouts so far this season. Agustin Ramirez also has 21 home runs, 33 doubles and 67 RBIs on the year.
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Marlins have won four of their last five games as underdogs.
- The Phillies have lost three of their last four games as favorites.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in 13 of their last 15 road games against the Phillies following a road loss.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six home games against teams that held a losing record.
Philadelphia Phillies Recap
The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to add on to their blowout win over the Marlins from Wednesday’s matchup to sit at 93-65 this season. After this series, the Phillies will take on the Minnesota Twins in their final regular season series at home.
Phillies Snap Three-Game Slide
Nick Castellanos has 136 hits with 27 doubles including 17 home runs and 71 RBIs while Kyle Schwarber has 145 hits with a team-high 56 home runs and 132 RBIs but also has a team-high 189 strikeouts as well on the year. Bryce Harper has 12 stolen bases, 32 doubles, 27 home runs and 75 RBIs. Trea Turner also has 179 hits with 7 triples, 15 home runs, 69 RBIs and a team-high 36 stolen bases. Max Kepler has 19 doubles and Bryson Stott has 22 doubles, 3 triples, 13 homers and 66 RBIs while Stott also has 23 stolen bases as well this season.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Phillies have won 15 of their last 17 home games after playing the previous day.
- The Marlins have lost four of their last five road games against NL East opponents.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight home games after playing the previous day.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five road games against NL East opponents.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in each of the Phillies’ last four home games.
- Bryson Stott has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 home appearances after playing the previous day.
- Brandon Marsh has recorded at least one Double in four of his last five appearances against NL East opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Phillies’ last nine games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Marlins’ last six road games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction
I’m on the Marlins here. I just think there could be a bit of a hangover here for the Phillies after clinching a first round bye in the playoffs. Walker Buehler hasn’t been my favorite starting option, regardless of where he has pitched this season. The Marlins have been able to provide value in spots and are still fighting to finish at .500. Janson Junk’s been a solid option at times, and I think he puts Miami in a spot to get a win with him on the bump here. Give me Miami.
