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Philadelphia Phillies vs NY Mets Prediction 5-16-24 Picks

NY Mets (19-22) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (30-13)
May 16, 2024 6:40 pm EDT
The Line: Philadelphia Phillies -137 / NY Mets +116; Over/Under: +8
(Get latest betting odds)

The New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Thursday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. Here’s a Philadelphia Phillies vs NY Mets Prediction. This will be the final installment in a four-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The Mets played the Atlanta Braves over the weekend, losing 4-2 Friday and 4-1 Saturday before a 4-3 Sunday win to halt the sweep. New York stumbled against the Phillies as well, losing 5-4 and 4-0 in the first pair. On Wednesday the Mets gave up nine runs across three innings in a 10-5 defeat. Starting pitcher Joey Lucchesi finished with 4.1 innings, five earned, five hits and four walks.

For the Thursday finale, the Mets will send out Jose Quintana as the starter. So far over his eight starts, Quintana is 1-4 with a 5.44 ERA this year. He’s got 28 Ks in 41.1 innings. Quintana is 93-97 with a 3.78 career ERA in 336 games (310 starts).

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

Over on the Phillies’ side, they took on the Miami Marlins in their weekend set. Philadelphia won the first two games of that trio 8-2 and 8-3 before a finale loss 7-6. In the Wednesday game three versus the Mets, the Phillies posted 10 hits in the victory. Ranger Suarez finished with 5.0 clean frames, four hits, two walks and three Ks.

It’ll be Taijuan Walker in the starting pitcher role for the Phillies on Thursday. This year so far Walker is 3-0 with a 4.82 ERA and 15 Ks in 18.2 innings over three starts. Walker has a 72-56 career record with a 3.98 ERA in 201 games (197 starts).

Mets vs Phillies Injury Notes

Mets RP Drew Smith (shoulder) was not activated from the 15-day Injured List Wednesday, as had been anticipated.

Phillies 1B Bryce Harper (migraine) was able to return to the lineup Wednesday. Catcher JT Realmuto (knee) made his return as well.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

  • The Phillies have won each of their last 10 night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
  • The Mets have lost each of their last six games at Citizens Bank Park.
  • The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last 10 night games against NL East opponents.
  • The Mets have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last nine home night games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

  • Bryce Harper has hit a home run in four of the Phillies’ last five games as home favorites.
  • J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Phillies’ last four games against the Mets at Citizens Bank Park.
  • Taijuan Walker has recorded five or more strikeouts in 12 of his last 15 home appearances against NL opponents.
  • Taijuan Walker has recorded a win in seven of his last eight appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
  • Trea Turner has recorded two or more hits in each of his last eight appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
  • Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of his last nine appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
  • Trea Turner has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last 11 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
  • Trea Turner has recorded at least one Double in four of his last five home appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Trea Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
  • Alec Bohm ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.333) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

  • J.D. Martinez has hit a home run in two of the Mets’ last three games as underdogs.
  • Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last eight road appearances against the Phillies.
  • Jose Quintana has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his five previous appearances at Citizens Bank Park.
  • Francisco Lindor has scored at least one run in each of his last eight Thursday appearances with the Mets as underdogs.
  • Jeff McNeil has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last eight road games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jeff McNeil has recorded at least one total base in each of the Mets’ last eight road games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Pete Alonso has recorded a Double in each of the Mets’ last five night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Tomas Nido has recorded at least one Single in each of his last four appearances with the Mets as road underdogs against NL opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Philadelphia Phillies rank T1st in the league for triples this season (10).
  • The Philadelphia Phillies rank 2nd in the league for runs scored this season (222).
  • The New York Mets rank 30th in the league for walks allowed this season (187).
  • The New York Mets rank T1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (29).

Philadelphia Phillies vs NY Mets Prediction

I’ll probably stay with the Phillies. This one’s going to depend on what the starters do. Walker did give up six earned in 6.1 innings versus the Padres back on April 28, but in his two starts since then he’s been great. Walker has four earned in 12.1 innings in a pair of wins during those. As for Quintana, he’s given up 12 earned runs combined over 7.2 innings in his last two starts—both losses.

On Wednesday in game three, the Phillies got three RBI, three hits, two runs and a homer from Bryce Harper in a very well-balanced offensive outing. I like Philadelphia to keep it going Thursday.

Andrew's Free Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -137

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Andrew

Andrew has been writing about college, professional and fantasy sports betting since 2013. Andrew's goal is to break down the complicated numbers and trends into a language that's easily accessible to novice sports bettors and seasoned professionals alike.

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