Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 7/1/26 MLB Picks Today

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Wednesday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Pittsburgh Pirates will send out Paul Skenes for the start here and Skenes is 6-7 with a 3.10 ERA and 114 strikeouts this season. Zack Wheeler will start for Philadelphia and is 8-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 74 strikeouts this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game looking to bounce back from an 8-0 loss at the hands of Philadelphia last time out to sit at 43-43 this season. After this series, the Pirates will head on the road for a series against the Washington Nationals.

Pirates Have Two-Game Win Streak Snapped

Oneil Cruz has 66 hits including 10 doubles, 14 home runs and 44 RBIs while Ryan O’Hearn has 76 hits with 11 doubles, 13 home runs and 51 RBIs this season. Nick Gonzales has 87 hits with 11 doubles and 35 RBIs while Brandon Lowe has 74 hits with 19 doubles, 20 home runs and 57 RBIs and Bryan Reynolds has 87 hits with 20 doubles, 2 triples, 11 home runs and 52 RBIs as well this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to add on to their win over the Pirates last time out to improve to 48-38 this season. After this series, the Phillies will head on the road for a series against the Kansas City Royals.

Phillies Win 6 Of Last 8

Adolis Garcia has 45 hits with 8 doubles, 7 home runs and 21 RBIs while Kyle Schwarber has 79 hits with 9 doubles, 30 home runs and 55 RBIs. Brandon Marsh has 95 hits with 15 doubles, 14 home runs and 45 RBIs while Justin Crawford also has 62 hits with 12 doubles, 2 triples, 2 home runs and 19 RBIs. Trea Turner has 82 hits with 15 doubles, 9 home runs and 28 RBIs and Bryce Harper’s added 83 hits with 14 doubles, 20 home runs and 54 RBIs this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: July 1, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Zack Wheeler      Record this season: 8-1      ERA: 2.03
• Home Record: 4-0
• Last 5 against Pirates: 3-1

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Pirates have lost six of their last seven night games against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have won five of their last six night games against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven night games against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in five of their last six games against the Pirates.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight road games.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in three of their last four home games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Paul Skenes      Record this season: 6-7      ERA: 3.10
• Road Record: 3-3
• Last 5 against Phillies: 0-2

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won each of their last eight Wednesday night games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have lost four of their last five games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last eight Wednesday night games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight Wednesday road games.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Pirates’ last six games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Three of the last four games between the Pirates and Phillies have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in six of the Phillies’ last seven home games.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in four of the Pirates’ last five night games against NL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Bryce Harper has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games against the Pirates.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in each of his last five home appearances against NL opponents.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 19 games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (30) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit a home run in four of the Pirates’ last five games.
• Paul Skenes has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances against NL opponents.
• Jake Mangum has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 road appearances.
• Bryan Reynolds ranks 6th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.398) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (824).
• The Phillies rank 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.303).
• The Pirates rank 2nd in the league for hits this season (768).
• The Pirates rank 29th in the league for strikeouts against this season (809).

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

I’m on the under in this one. It might be a square way to look at this game just looking at the starting pitching and may feel like the captain obvious play, but I like a pitcher’s duel here between two of the better arms in the National League. This is just a play on what I feel has to be done so give me the under in what feels like a 3-2 kind of game.