St. Louis Cardinals (27-27) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (39-18)
May 31, 2024 6:40 pm EDT
The Line: Philadelphia Phillies -182 / St. Louis Cardinals +153; Over/Under: +8.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article we will formulate a Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 31st at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.
Philadelphia Looking for More Offense
The Philadelphia Phillies are 39-18 this season and they have lost four of their last six games, scoring two runs or fewer in three of those games. Philadelphia is coming off of a series loss against San Francisco, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Phillies lost two out of three against the Rockies, swept the Rangers in three games, and swept the Nationals in three games. Philadelphia is 8-4 in their last 12 games and they are leading the NL East over the Braves and Nationals.
The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.08 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a .223 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 299 runs with a .258 batting average and a .334 on base percentage. Bryce Harper is batting .266 with 13 home runs and 42 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. Philadelphia is second in the MLB in team ERA and they have allowed three runs or fewer in seven of their last twelve games.
Cardinals are Red Hot
The St. Louis Cardinals are 27-27 this season and they have won seven of their last eight games. St. Louis is coming off of a series win against Cincinnati, where they won two out of three games and scored 13 runs in the series. Prior to that series, the Cardinals won both games against the Cubs, swept the Orioles in three games, and won two out of three against the Red Sox. St. Louis is 12-3 in their last 15 games and they are battling with the Cubs for second in the NL Central behind Milwaukee.
The St. Louis pitching staff has a 4.11 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a .254 opponent batting average. The Cardinals offense has scored 213 runs with a .237 batting average and a .312 on base percentage. Nolan Arenado is batting .257 with four home runs and 25 RBI’s for the Cardinals this season. St. Louis is towards the bottom of the MLB in runs scored, but they have scored at least four runs five of their last six games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Aaron Nola, who is 6-2 with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 71.0 innings pitched this season. Nola has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings and has allowed just four total earned runs over his last 22.0 innings of work. The projected starting pitcher for St. Louis is Miles Mikolas, who is 3-5 with a 5.64 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 59.0 innings pitched this year. Mikolas has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts and has gone at least six innings in three of those outings.
Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win
The Phillies have lost five of their last six games as home favorites against NL Central opponents following a win.
The Cardinals have won four of their last five games as underdogs.
The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as home favorites against NL Central opponents following a win.
The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last four games between the Cardinals and Phillies.
The Cardinals have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
The Cardinals have led after 3 innings in each of their last five night games.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Cardinals’ last four games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Five of the Phillies’ last six games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cardinals’ last five night games.
Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
The Phillies come into this series with a big lead in the NL East over the Braves and they are 22-8 at home, but St. Louis is one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. The Cardinals are just 14-15 on the road, but they have shot up the standings in the NL Central. St. Louis is going with Miles Mikolas, who has some rough numbers, but has been decent recently. Philadelphia is going with Aaron Nola, who has been great this season. The Phillies offense has been a little down recently and I really like how St. Louis is playing. My Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals prediction is for the Cardinals to get a nice road win.
