Phillies vs Mets Prediction 6/18/26 MLB Picks Today

The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies meet Thursday in MLB action at Citizens Bank Park. Here’s a Phillies vs Mets Prediction. This article will include a Phillies vs Mets Pick.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 33-41 on the year and play the Phillies and Cubs next. The New York Mets are batting .232 on the season, have a .298 OBP, and have a .370 slugging percentage. The New York Mets’ pitching staff has a 3.93 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. Bo Bichette leads the New York Mets with 76 hits and 42 RBI, while Carson Benge and Juan Soto have combined for 127 hits and 62 RBI.

Sean Manaea gets the ball for the New York Mets, and he is 1-2 with a 4.78 ERA and 51 strikeouts this season. Manaea is 2-3 with a 5.30 ERA and 37 strikeouts in his career against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 40-34 on the year and play the Nationals and Mets next. The Philadelphia Phillies are batting .229 on the season, with a .297 OBP and a .388 slugging percentage. The Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff has a 4.09 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Brandon Marsh leads the Philadelphia Phillies with 80 hits and 35 RBI, while Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber have combined for 132 hits and 64 RBI.

Aaron Nola gets the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he is 3-4 with a 5.86 ERA and 71 strikeouts this season. Nola is 11-10 with a 3.42 ERA and 218 strikeouts in his career against the New York Mets.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The home team has won each of the last eight games between the Mets and Phillies.
• The Mets have lost 10 of their last 11 road games against NL East opponents following a road win.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games following a loss.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in each of their last three night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight night games.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last nine night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Phillies have lost four of their last five games as home favorites against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Mets have won three of their last four games as underdogs following a road win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs following a road win.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games following a home loss.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have won the first inning in four of their last five night games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last five Thursday games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last four games as underdogs against the Phillies have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Phillies’ last six games as favorites against the Mets have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the Mets’ last 13 night games against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Phillies’ last seven night games at Citizens Bank Park.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in six of the Phillies’ last seven home games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in nine of his last 10 appearances against the Mets.
• Brandon Marsh has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Aaron Nola has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against NL East opponents.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (25) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Marcus Semien has hit a home run in each of the Mets’ last two road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Bo Bichette has recorded two or more hits in each of the Mets’ last six games.
• Sean Manaea has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Juan Soto ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.555) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank T29th in the league for doubles this season (94).
• The Phillies rank 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.297).
• The Mets rank T29th in the league for doubles this season (94).
• The Mets rank 28th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.370).

Phillies vs Mets Prediction

Usually, Nola would be an automatic bet, but he’s been awful this season. I’m not excited to bet the Mets. This is a spot where I’m looking at the over. Through 49 innings, Manaea has a 4.78 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, while Nola has a 5.85 ERA and 1.47 WHIP through 70.2 innings. In 21.2 road innings, Manaea has a 4.57 ERA and a .262 batting average allowed. Nola has allowed 16 hits and 10 runs in his last 14 innings. In 29 home innings, Nola has a 6.21 ERA and a .308 batting average allowed. I expect runs. Give me the over.