Phillies vs Red Sox Prediction 7/22/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Phillies vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, July 22nd at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 57-43 this year after they won game one by a score of 3-2 on Monday night. Philadelphia blew a 2-1 lead in the sixth inning, but they managed to score the only run in the 10th to escape with the win. The Phillies recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Sosa, Realmuto, and Castellanos, who all had one RBI in the win. Philadelphia started Wheeler, who allowed seven hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Lazar picked up the win in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Phillies lost two out of three against the Angels and two out of three against the Padres. Philadelphia has alternated wins and losses over their last six games and they are currently first in the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.71 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 457 runs with a .254 batting average and a .328 on base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with 32 home runs and 74 RBIs, while Nick Castellanos has added 12 home runs and 53 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Cristopher Sanchez, who is 8-2 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 115.0 innings pitched this year. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 54-48 this season after they lost game one in dramatic fashion on Monday night. Boston tied the game at two in the sixth inning, but after they failed to score in the top of the 10th inning, they lost on a catcher’s interference call. The Red Sox recorded eight hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Duran and Story, who both had one RBI in the loss. Boston started Buehler, who allowed six hits and one earned run over 7.0 innings, while Hicks picked up the loss in extras. 

Prior to this series, the Red Sox lost two out of three against the Cubs, but did sweep the Rays in four games before that. Boston has lost three of their last four games and they are currently third in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.77 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 500 runs with a .254 batting average and a .324 on base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu has led Boston with 20 home runs and 55 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 15 home runs and 59 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Richard Fitts, who is 1-3 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 33.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Phillies will beat the Red Sox

• The favorites have won each of the Red Sox’s last 14 games.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last six road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against NL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in 13 of their last 15 night games against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in 11 of their last 12 road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have lost the first inning in six of their last eight games as underdogs against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last five night games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Phillies’ last six night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last eight games as underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last four night games against American League opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in four of the Phillies’ last five night games.
• Max Kepler has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against the Red Sox.
• Bryce Harper has recorded at least one Double in five of the Phillies’ last six games.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in night games.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded a Double in three of the Red Sox’s last four road games against NL East opponents.

Phillies vs Red Sox Prediction 

Boston was red hot going into the All-Star break and they were back in the AL East race, but they have lost three of their last four games and have scored a total of three runs in those three losses. The Red Sox are just 22-28 on the road this year, while the Phillies are 32-18 at home. Philadelphia has also struggled with consistency recently and they are starting Sanchez, who has allowed one earned run in five straight outings. The Sox are going with Fitts, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, but rarely pitches very deep into games. I am hesitant to take Philadelphia with how they are hitting, but I will back Sanchez on the mound. Take the Phillies -1.5 here.