Phillies vs Reds Prediction 7/5/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Phillies vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, July 5th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 51-37 this year after they lost game one in this series by a score of 9-6 on Friday. Philadelphia led 3-0 in the first inning, but they allowed nine of the next ten runs in the game for the loss. The Phillies recorded 14 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Castellanos, who went 1-5 with one home run and three RBIs in the loss. Philadelphia started Luzardo, who allowed six hits and five earned runs over 2.0 innings for the loss, while Ross allowed three earned runs in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Phillies won two out of three against the Padres and two out of three against the Braves. Philadelphia has won three of their last five games and they are currently first in the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.76 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a .246 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 405 runs with a .257 batting average and a .330 on base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with 26 home runs and 60 RBIs, while Nick Castellanos has added 11 home runs and 49 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Ranger Suarez, who is 7-2 with a 2.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 72.0 innings pitched this year. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 46-42 this season after they won game one by a score of 9-6 on Friday afternoon. Cincinnati had their lead cut to 6-4 in the third inning, but they scored the next three runs to pull away in the win. The Reds recorded 11 hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Steer and De La Cruz, who both had two RBIs in the win. Cincinnati started Abbott, who allowed nine hits and four earned runs over 3.1 innings, while Moll picked up the win in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Reds lost two out of three against the Red Sox, but did win two out of three against the Padres before that. Cincinnati has won three of their last five games and they are currently fourth in the NL Central standings. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.95 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .237 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 413 runs with a .248 batting average and a .320 on base percentage this season. Elly De La Cruz has led Cincinnati with 18 home runs and 60 RBIs, while Spencer Steer has added 10 home runs and 37 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Nick Lodolo, who is 5-5 with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 94.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Phillies will beat the Reds

• The Phillies have won each of their last eight home games against the Reds following a loss.
• The Reds have lost each of their last six Saturday games at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last six games as favorites against the Reds following a loss.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games after playing the previous day.
• The Reds have lost the first inning in four of their last five games against opponents that held a winning record at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven games as road underdogs.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games as home favorites against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Phillies’ last seven games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Nine of the Reds’ last 11 games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last nine games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Reds’ last seven day games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Ranger Suarez has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one Double in four of the Phillies’ last five games against the Reds.
• Nick Castellanos has hit a home run in four of the Phillies’ last six games as home favorites.
• Ranger Suarez has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances against former teams.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Nick Lodolo has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his five previous appearances with the Reds as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 11 road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Trevino has recorded a Double in each of his last three road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in five of the Reds’ last eight road games against opponents that held a winning record.

Phillies vs Reds Prediction 

Cincinnati was able to jump on the Philadelphia pitching staff early in game one to get the win and they have scored 17 runs in their last two games. The Reds are 22-23 on the road this year, while the Phillies are 28-16 at home. The Phillies are holding a very slim lead in the NL East and they are starting Suarez, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in four straight outings. The Reds are going with Lodolo, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. This should be a solid pitching matchup, but Suarez has been one of the best in baseball this year. Take the Phillies -1.5 here.