Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction 7/2/25 MLB Picks Today

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet Wednesday in MLB action from PNC Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The St. Louis Cardinals will send out Sonny Gray for the start here, and Gray is 8-2 with a 3.36 ERA and 101 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Pirates, Gray is 3-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 36 strikeouts. Mitch Keller will start for Pittsburgh here and is 2-10 with a 3.90 ERA and 77 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Cardinals, Keller is 0-3 with a 3.73 ERA and 24 strikeouts.

St. Louis Cardinals Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals come into this game looking to rebound from a 1-0 loss at the hands of the Pirates in Tuesday’s matchup to sit at 47-40 on the year. After this series, the Cardinals will head on the road for a series against the Chicago Cubs.

Cardinals Drop Back-To-Back Games

Brendan Donovan has a team-high 90 hits along with 21 doubles, 6 home runs, and 31 RBIs, while Lars Nootbaar has 68 hits with 11 home runs, 35 RBIs, 13 doubles, and 4 stolen bases. Nolan Arenado also has 75 hits with 13 doubles, 10 home runs, and 41 RBIs of his own, and Victor Scott II has 61 hits with 9 doubles, a triple, 28 RBIs, and a team-high 22 stolen bases. Willson Contreras has also chipped in 75 hits with 19 doubles, 11 home runs, and 51 RBIs of his own this season. Masyn Winn added 75 points with 16 doubles, 7 home runs, and 30 RBIs, and Alec Burleson added 74 hits with 13 doubles, 10 home runs, and 37 RBIs.

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

• The Cardinals have won each of their last seven games as favorites.
• The Pirates have lost six of their last seven day games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cardinals have covered the run line in each of their last 10 road games following a road loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Alec Burleson has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with the Cardinals as favorites.
• Alec Burleson has recorded two or more hits in each of his last four appearances with the Cardinals as road favorites.
• Sonny Gray has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Sonny Gray has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances with his team as a favorite against the Pirates.
• Victor Scott II ranks T4th in the league in Steals (22) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates will be out to build on their win over the Cardinals from Tuesday’s matchup to sit at 37-50 on the year. After this series, the Pirates will head on the road for a series against the Seattle Mariners.

Pirates Win Five In A Row

Bryan Reynolds has 76 hits with 16 doubles, 10 home runs, and 45 RBIs while also posting 89 strikeouts so far this season. Oneil Cruz has posted a team-high 15 home runs and 35 RBIs with 27 stolen bases, while Isiah Kiner-Falefa has 68 hits with 10 doubles and 10 stolen bases. Cruz also has a team-high 108 strikeouts this season. Tommy Pham has 6 doubles and Andrew McCutchen has 72 hits with 14 doubles, and KeBryan Hayes has 72 hits with 29 RBIs and 9 stolen bases.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Cardinals have lost each of their last eight games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have won each of their last nine home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as home underdogs against National League opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in two of the Pirates’ last three games as underdogs.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded a Double in each of the Pirates’ last five games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Mitch Keller has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last eight appearances with the Pirates as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 home appearances against NL opponents.
• Oneil Cruz ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (27) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Pirates’ last eight games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Cardinals’ last four games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction

I’m on the under here. I get the case to be made for either side in this game, but the thing is that the Cardinals have been shut out in back-to-back games, and I think Mitch Keller is a better pitcher than his numbers indicate. The problem is that he doesn’t get backed up by his offense, and that to me all adds up to an under so give me the under here.