Pirates vs Cubs Prediction 4/11/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB matchup on Saturday, April 11^th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have a 6-7 record this season and are sitting in the fifth place of the NL Central. They have a 3-4 home record and are coming off a 0-2 home loss against the Pirates. Their previous three games were a 6-2 and a 9-2 road win, and a 4-6 road loss against the Rays.

The Cubs have a .220 batting average this season, .314 OBP and .355 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.32 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Nico Hoerner is the team’s best hitter with a .326 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 9. Ian Happ adds a team-high 4 home runs.

Edward Cabrera (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 1-0 record, 0.00 ERA and 0.69 WHIP.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have an 8-5 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the NL Central. They have a 4-3 away record and are coming off a 2-0 road win against the Cubs. Their previous three games were a 2-8 home loss, a 7-1 home win, and a 0-5 home loss against the Padres.

The Pirates have a .237 batting average this season, .327 OBP and .371 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 3.08 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Ryan O’Hearn is the team’s best hitter with a .341 batting average. Oneil Cruz leads the team in RBI with 12, also adding a team-high 4 home runs.

Braxton Ashcraft (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 1-1 record, 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: April 11, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Edward Cabrera      Record this season: 1-0      ERA: 0.00
• Home Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Pirates: 0-1

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last 11 Saturday games at Wrigley Field.
• The Cubs have won each of their last seven games following a home loss.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last six games following a home loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line each of their last four games at Wrigley Field against teams that held a losing record.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in five of their last six home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in four of their last five home games against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Braxton Ashcraft      Record this season: 1-1      ERA: 2.25
• Road Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Cubs: 0-1

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The underdogs have won four of the Cubs’ last five games.
• The Cubs have lost three of their last four games as favorites.
• The road team has covered the run line in 11 of the last 12 games between the Pirates and Cubs.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as favorites.
• The Pirates have won the first inning in three of their last four games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the last eight games between the Pirates and Cubs at Wrigley Field have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Pirates’ last four games as road underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last six games as favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last five games as underdogs.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in three of the Cubs’ last five games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Edward Cabrera has recorded a win in five of his last six home appearances.
• Edward Cabrera has recorded seven or more strikeouts in three of his four previous appearances at Wrigley Field.
• Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 home appearances.
• Nico Hoerner ranks T5th in the league in Steals (5) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last three road games.
• Oneil Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last nine games.
• Oneil Cruz ranks T8th in the league in Home Runs (4) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (82).
• The Cubs rank 3rd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.203).
• The Pirates rank T29th in the league for steals this season (4).
• The Pirates rank 4th in the league for ERA this season (3.08).

Pirates vs Cubs Prediction

The Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings against the Pirates and are 5-2 in their last 7 meetings in Chicago.

In this Pirates vs Cubs Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -150 home favorites. Cabrera takes the mound for the Cubs and has been unhittable in 11.2 innings pitched this season. Ashcraft has been good for the Pirates, but they are weaker against right-handed pitching, while the Cubs are better, with 4.9 runs/9 compared to the Pirates’ 3.9. Since the Cubs have a weaker bullpen, take them on the moneyline in the first 5 innings of this game, as I expect another gem from Cabrera against a sub-par Pirates offense.