Pirates vs Cubs Prediction 5/1/25 MLB Picks Today

The Chicago Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet Thursday in MLB action from PNC Park. This will be the final installment in a three-game series. Here’s a Pirates vs Cubs prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Pirates vs Cubs pick.

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

Chicago took a split series in four games versus the Arizona Diamondbacks in their first appearance of the season, then bagged a sweep over the Oakland Athletics ahead of a series victory against the San Diego Padres. The Cubs won a set against the Texas Rangers after that. Following a series victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers was a series loss against the Padres. Chicago took two of three during their rematch against the Diamondbacks, and afterward took out the Dodgers in two games. The Cubs split the first two weekend games with the Philadelphia Phillies, then lost the rubber match 3-1. On Tuesday versus Pittsburgh, the Cubs rolled to a 9-0 blowout victory on the strength of 13 team hits. Starting pitcher Shota Imanaga managed 5.0 innings with six hits, one walk, and three strikeouts in the win.

In the Wednesday game two, Chicago scored three runs in the fifth inning and had a brief lead, but ultimately fell 4-3 in a tough result. Ian Happ came away with two hits and a run, while Dansby Swanson notched three hits with a run. Starter Matthew Boyd had 5.0 innings with two earned runs on six hits and three walks.

As a starter for Thursday’s matchup, the Cubs will roll with Colin Rea. This year, Rea is 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA in six games (three starts). Rea is 27-20 with a 4.43 ERA in 100 career games (79 starts) during his MLB career.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

Over on the Pirates’ side, they opened the season by losing three straight series versus the Miami Marlins, the Tampa Bay Rays, and the New York Yankees. Pittsburgh finally won a set versus the St. Louis Cardinals, then got swept by the Reds. After another series victory over the Washington Nationals, the Pirates took a sweep by the Guardians ahead of a set victory over the Angels. Pittsburgh split its first two games versus the Dodgers. On Sunday, the Pirates lost 9-2 to drop the series. On Tuesday versus Chicago, the Pirates gave up three runs in the seventh inning and were cooked from there. Andrew Heaney gave up four earned runs in 4.2 innings in the start on five hits and three walks.

In the Wednesday matchup, Pittsburgh got two runs in the bottom of the seventh inning to cement the comeback bid. Andrew McCutchen had two RBI, and starter Carmen Mlodzinski had 4.0 innings with two earned runs on six hits and a walk.

In the starting pitcher role for Thursday, the Pirates are sending out Paul Skenes. In six starts so far this year, Skenes is 3-2 with a 2.39 ERA over 37.2 total innings. In 29 career starts, Skenes is 14-5 with a 2.06 ERA overall.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Cubs have lost four of their last five games after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have won three of their last four home games against National League opponents.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in five of their last six day games against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Thursday games as home favorites.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games at PNC Park against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last seven games as underdogs against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last eight day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games as underdogs against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites following a win.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six day games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Fourteen of the Pirates’ last 15 day games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Cubs’ last four games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last seven games as road underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last six Thursday games against NL Central opponents.

Pirates vs Cubs Prediction

I’ll lean toward Pittsburgh getting it done here, but you could call it either way. We should have a good starter matchup on our hands. Skenes was still pretty good in his latest loss versus Cleveland on April 19, giving up two earned runs on six hits and a walk in 7.0 innings. Over the other pair in his last three outings, Skenes is 2-0 with 12.1 innings, one earned, eight hits, and no walks. As for Rea, he’s got just two earned across 13.1 innings on 12 hits and three walks in his last three starts combined. Rea is 1-0 in that trio.

The Pirates really only had one bad inning in their Wednesday comeback victory: the three-run fifth. After that, the bullpen finished things off with 4.0 frames, two hits, no earned, no walks, and two strikeouts. Pittsburgh should be competitive on Thursday as well, but it’s a close call.