Pirates vs Marlins Prediction 6/11/25 MLB Picks Today

The Miami Marlins and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet Wednesday in MLB action from PNC Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pirates vs Marlins Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Miami Marlins will send out Cal Quantrill for the start here, and Quantrill is 3-6 with a 5.63 ERA and 40 strikeouts this season. In his career, Quantrill is 1-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 15 strikeouts against the Pirates. Bailey Falter will get the start for the Pirates and is 4-3 with a 3.49 ERA and 43 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Marlins, Falter is 3-0 with a 3.45 ERA and 18 strikeouts.

Miami Marlins Recap

The Miami Marlins will be out to build on their 3-2 win over the Pirates from Tuesday’s matchup to sit at 25-40 on the year. After this series, the Marlins will head on the road for a division series against the Washington Nationals.

Marlins Looking For Rare Series Win

Xavier Edwards leads the Marlins with 56 hits, including 6 doubles and a team-high 11 stolen bases, while Eric Wagaman has 55 hits with 13 doubles. Otto Lopez has 41 hits with 7 doubles and 6 home runs with 24 RBIs, and Matt Mervis has 7 home runs and 14 RBIs so far this year. Kyle Stowers has 59 hits with 8 doubles, 2 triples, 10 home runs, and 33 RBIs, but also has 68 strikeouts, while Mervis has 50 K’s as well so far this season.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Pirates have lost six of their last seven games as favorites following a loss.
• The Marlins have won five of their last seven games as underdogs against the Pirates following a road win.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites following a loss.
• The road team has covered the run line in eight of the Marlins’ last nine games.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Otto Lopez has hit a home run in two of the Marlins’ last three road games against NL opponents.
• Otto Lopez has scored a run in each of the Marlins’ last seven games as underdogs against the Pirates.
• Cal Quantrill has recorded four or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last 10 road games.
• Jesus Sanchez has recorded an RBI in five of the Marlins’ last six games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded a Single in four of the Marlins’ last five road games against NL opponents that held a losing record.

Pittsburgh Pirates Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss at the hands of the Marlins on Tuesday to sit at 27-41 this season. After this series, the Pirates will travel to Wrigley for a series against the Chicago Cubs.

Pirates Have Four-Game Win Streak Snapped

Bryan Reynolds has 60 hits with 9 doubles, 8 home runs, and 39 RBIs while also leading the Pirates with 73 strikeouts so far this season. Oneil Cruz has posted a team-high 12 home runs and 28 RBIs with 23 stolen bases, while Isiah Kiner-Falefa has 55 hits with 9 stolen bases. Emmanuel Valdez also has a pair of triples this season. Tommy Pham has 4 doubles and Andrew McCutchen has 52 hits with 10 doubles, and KeBryan Hayes has 52 hits with 18 RBIs and 6 stolen bases.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won each of their last six home games against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Marlins have lost each of their last nine Wednesday day games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in 12 of their last 13 home games against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Oneil Cruz has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last two day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Pirates’ last four day games.
• Oneil Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Andrew McCutchen has recorded a Double in three of the Pirates’ last four games as favorites against NL opponents.
• Adam Frazier has scored at least one run in nine of his last 10 appearances against the Marlins at PNC Park.
• Adam Frazier has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Oneil Cruz ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (23) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Pirates’ last seven day games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Nine of the Marlins’ last 11 day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Pirates vs Marlins Prediction

I’m on the under in this one. I get the case to be made for either side in this one, but the thing is that we have a quality pitching matchup here. Falter’s been solid prior to the start against the Phillies last time out, but this Marlins team has usually struggled against lefties. On the other side, Quantrill has been pretty good, and I think the Pirates could have issues here as well. I think this is a first-to-three-wins kind of game once again, so give me the under in this one.