Pirates vs Reds Prediction 7/31/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Reds Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, July 31^st in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 51-57 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL Central. They have a 24-30 home record and are coming off a 3-2 home win against the Pirates. They will face the Athletics and the Nationals next.

The Cincinnati Reds have a .230 batting average this season, .309 OBP and .395 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.41 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .279 batting average. Sal Stewart leads the team in RBI with 80 and adds a team-high 22 home runs.

Hunter Greene (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds, and he has a 2-2 record, 7.06 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 55-55 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL Central. They have a 26-27 away record and are coming off a 2-3 road loss against the Reds. They will face the Brewers and the Mets next.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a .259 batting average this season, .336 OBP and .419 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.26 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .316 batting average. Brandon Lowe leads the team in RBI with 70 and adds a team-high 23 home runs.

Paul Skenes (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he has a 9-9 record, 3.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends: July 31, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Hunter Greene      Record this season: 2-2      ERA: 7.06
• Home Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Pirates: 1-2

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The underdogs have won eight of the Reds’ last nine games.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last seven night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Pirates’ last seven games.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games at Great American Ball Park against opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Paul Skenes      Record this season: 9-9      ERA: 3.65
• Road Record: 4-4
• Last 5 against Reds: 3-0

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Reds have lost each of their last eight home games following a win.
• The Pirates have won each of their last four road games following a road loss.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last six road games against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six home games following a win.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds’ last eight night games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Ten of the Pirates’ last 11 games as favorites against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Pirates’ last six games against NL Central opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the last six night games between the Pirates and Reds at Great American Ball Park.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Eugenio Suarez has hit a home run in three of the Reds’ last five games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Hunter Greene has recorded nine or more strikeouts in each of his three previous appearances with the Reds as underdogs against the Pirates.
• Sal Stewart has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 15 games against NL Central opponents.
• Hunter Greene has recorded a win in four of his last five home appearances against NL opponents.
• Elly De La Cruz is one of only eight players to record 10+ Home Runs and 4+ Triples this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit a home run in three of the Pirates’ last four games against the Reds.
• Paul Skenes has recorded a win in four of his five previous appearances with the Pirates as favorites against the Reds.
• Nick Gonzales has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last 14 games.
• Nick Gonzales ranks 4th in the league in Hits (125) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Reds rank 30th in the league for hits this season (830).
• The Reds rank 30th in the league for hits this season (830).
• The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (992).
• The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (992).

Pirates vs Reds Prediction

The Reds are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Pirates but have lost two of their last three meetings in Cincinnati.

In this Pirates vs Reds Prediction, the Pirates are coming as -130 road favorites. I like the Pirates in a bounce back spot on the road with Paul Skenes on the mound. Skenes is coming off a bad start and will bounce back today against a struggling Reds offense that scores just 3.1 runs per game against righties in their last 10 games. Hunter Greene has been bad in his four starts this season, having given up 6, 3 and 8 runs in three of them and I don’t trust him against the 4^th-best offense in baseball. Take the Pirates to win this one.