Rays vs Astros Prediction 7/5/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Rays vs Astros Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, July 5^th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have a 44‑47 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the AL West. They have a 22‑24 home record and are coming off a 10‑8 home win against the Rays. They will face the Nationals and the Rangers next.

The Astros have a .242 batting average this season, .316 OBP and .410 Slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 4.78 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Yordan Alvarez is the team’s best hitter with a .324 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 67 and adding a team‑high 29 home runs.

Peter Lambert (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros, and he has a 6‑5 record, 3.51 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 52‑34 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the AL East. They have a 21‑22 road record and are coming off an 8‑10 road defeat against the Astros. They will face the Yankees and the Mariners next.

The Rays have a .260 batting average this season, .338 OBP and .400 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 3.76 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Yandy Diaz is the team’s best hitter with a .325 batting average. Jonathan Aranda leads the team in RBI with 58, while Junior Caminero adds a team‑high 26 home runs.

Griffin Jax (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 4‑5 record, 3.45 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros Betting Trends: July 5, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Peter Lambert      Record this season: 6-5      ERA: 3.51
• Home Record: 4-4
• Last 5 against Rays: 0-0

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won each of their last five day games against American League opponents.
• The Rays have lost seven of their last eight road games following a road loss.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last four day games against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 11 day games against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in each of their last three day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have won the first inning in each of their last three day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in five of their last six day games against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Griffin Jax      Record this season: 4-5      ERA: 3.45
• Road Record: 2-4
• Last 5 against Astros: 0-0

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won nine of their last 10 games.
• The Astros have lost four of their last five home games against the Rays following a win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five home games against the Rays following a win.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 games.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Rays have won the first inning in three of their last four day games.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Astros’ last 10 home games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Rays’ last four day games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in nine of the Rays’ last 10 day games against AL West opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the Astros’ last eight home games against AL East opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Peter Lambert has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Yordan Alvarez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 home appearances against AL East opponents.
• Yordan Alvarez has hit at least one home run in each of the Astros’ last three games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Peter Lambert has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances in day games.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Griffin Jax has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances.
• Junior Caminero has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays’ last nine day games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Junior Caminero has hit at least one home run in eight of the Rays’ last nine games.
• Griffin Jax has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank 30th in the league for steals this season (28).
• The Astros rank 28th in the league for walks allowed this season (395).
• The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (613).
• The Rays rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (235).

Rays vs Astros Prediction

The Rays are 5-3 in their last 8 meetings against the Astros but both teams are tied 3-3 in their last 6 meetings in Houston.

Both pitchers in this matchup have been decent and have probably gone under the radar, but they both have a combined 6.98 ERA. Both offenses exploded yesterday and what should have been a pitchers duel but they both combined for just 4 runs in the first game of the series. The Rays are 6-2 to the under in their last 8 games and the Astros have been 21^st against righties in the last 10 days. Take the under in this one.