Rays vs Twins Prediction 7/4/25 MLB Picks Today

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Minnesota Twins meet Friday in MLB action from Target Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Rays vs Twins Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Tampa Bay Rays will send out Zack Littell for the start here, and Littell is 7-7 with a 3.61 ERA and 71 strikeouts this season. In his career, Littell is 1-2 with a 4.03 ERA and 19 strikeouts against Minnesota. Chris Paddack will get the start for the Twins here and is 3-7 with a 4.70 ERA and 63 strikeouts this season. This will be Paddack’s second career start against the Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays come into this game looking to build on their 6-5 win over the Athletics from Wednesday’s series finale to improve to 48-39 on the year. After this series, the Rays will head on the road for a series against the Detroit Tigers.

Rays Snap Three-Game Losing Streak

Jonathan Aranda has 89 hits with 16 doubles, 10 home runs, and 45 RBIs. Brandon Lowe has 84 hits with 19 homers and 50 RBIs as well, while Junior Caminero has 82 hits with 19 doubles, a team-high 21 home runs, and 53 RBIs. Yandy Diaz has 95 hits with 16 doubles, 14 homers, and 49 RBIs, and Kameron Misner has 42 hits with 9 doubles, 5 homers, and 22 RBIs as well, while Christopher Morel has 62 strikeouts, Lowe has 81 strikeouts, and Misner has 69 K’s as well this season. Jose Caballero has 30 stolen bases while Taylor Walls has 10 stolen bases as well this season.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won five of their last six games as road underdogs.
• The Twins have lost nine of their last 10 home games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 home games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against the Twins.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in three of the Rays’ last four road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in 20 of his last 21 appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Jonathan Aranda ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.401) this season.

Minnesota Twins Recap

The Minnesota Twins come into this game looking to rebound from their 4-1 loss at the hands of the Miami Marlins last time out to sit at 41-46 on the year. After this series, the Twins will take on the Chicago Cubs at home.

Twins Drop 4 Of Their Last 5 Games

Byron Buxton has 73 hits along with 10 doubles, a team-high 19 home runs, and 51 RBIs with 15 stolen bases and 3 triples, while Carlos Correa has 71 hits with 14 doubles, and Willi Castro has 60 hits with 13 doubles as well. Harrison Bader added 7 home runs and 27 RBIs while Buxton contributed a team-high 81 strikeouts as well this season. Ty France has also added 78 hits, 15 doubles, 6 home runs, and 42 RBIs, and Trevor Larnach chipped in 76 hits with 13 doubles, 12 home runs, and 39 RBIs as well this season.

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The Twins have won each of their last four day games at Target Field following a road loss.
• The Rays have lost five of their last six day games against AL Central opponents following a home win.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the Twins’ last five games.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line each of their last four games against teams that held a losing record.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Byron Buxton has hit a home run in two of the Twins’ last three games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Chris Paddack has recorded four or more strikeouts in nine of his last 11 home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Ty France has recorded at least one hit in each of his 10 previous home appearances against the Rays after playing the previous day.
• Chris Paddack has recorded a win in three of his four previous appearances with his team as a favorite against AL East opponents .
• Byron Buxton ranks 10th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.545) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Rays’ last 10 road games against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Twins’ last four games have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Rays vs Twins Prediction

I’m on the Rays in this one. I get the case to be made for the Twins at home, but I’m not a fan of Chris Paddack in his current form. While Littell has had a problem this season with giving up the long ball, the Twins have just had a huge problem with offense as of late. I think the Rays are where the value is in this game. Give me Tampa Bay.