Red Sox vs Padres Prediction 4/3/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Red Sox vs Padres prediction for this MLB game on Friday, April 3rd at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 1-5 this season after they lost all three games against the Astros by scores of 1-8, 2-9, and 4-6. In their game three loss, Boston tied the game at two in the second inning, but they allowed the next four runs and couldn’t recover for the loss. The Red Sox recorded seven hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Abreu, who went 2-4 with one home run and one RBI. Crochet allowed six hits and four earned runs over 5.0 innings for the loss, while Coulombe allowed one hit and one earned run in relief. 

This season, Boston has a 4.91 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP and a .260 opponent batting average, while they have scored 17 runs with a .208 batting average and a .295 on base percentage. Wilyer Abreu has led the Red Sox with three home runs and six RBIs, while Roman Anthony has added one home run and two RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Sonny Gray, who is 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP over 4.0 innings pitched this season. 

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 2-4 this year after they lost two out of three against the Giants by scores of 2-3, 3-9, and 7-1. In their game three win, San Diego led 3-0 in the sixth inning and they added four more in the eighth to pull away with the win. The Padres recorded 10 hits in the game and they were led by Laureano, who went 2-4 with one home run and two RBIs. Pivetta allowed one hit and zero earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Miller picked up the save. 

This season, San Diego has a 4.00 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .228 opponent batting average, while they have scored 19 runs with a .202 batting average and a .280 on base percentage. Ramon Laureano has led the Padres with two home runs and four RBIs, while Jackson Merrill has added one home run and four RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Michael King, who is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 5.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Padres have lost each of their last eight games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The home team has won seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line each of their last 10 games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the Red Sox’s last five games.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five road games against American League opponents.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in four of their last five games against American League opponents that held a losing record.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last four games as favorites.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven day games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Red Sox’s last six games at Fenway Park.
• The Red Sox have lost the first inning in four of their last five games.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last five day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games against NL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Padres’ last four road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Red Sox’s last four home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last five games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Red Sox’s last five games.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Trevor Story has hit at least one home run in four of his last five appearances in home openers against NL opponents.
• Sonny Gray has recorded six or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances against NL opponents.
• Sonny Gray has recorded a win in each of his four previous appearances against the Padres.
• Triston Casas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Wilyer Abreu ranks T3rd in the league in Hits (10) this season.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit a home run in each of the Padres’ last two day games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Manny Machado has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 road appearances against the Red Sox.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks T7th in the league in Steals (2) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank T28th in the league for home runs allowed this season (11).
• The Red Sox rank T27th in the league for runs scored this season (17).
• The Padres rank T28th in the league for home runs this season (3).
• The Padres rank 28th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.301).

Red Sox vs Padres Prediction 

Boston comes into this matchup on a five game losing streak and they have allowed at least six runs in four of those five games. The Red Sox are starting Gray, who really struggled in his first start of the year. San Diego has split their last four games and they have allowed three runs or fewer in three of their last four. The Padres are starting King, who pitched five scoreless innings in his first outing. I know Boston is really struggling, but I think they will bounce back against a very low scoring SD team. Take the Red Sox here.