Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction 8/29/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Red Sox vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Friday, August 29th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 75-60 this year after they won all four games against Baltimore by scores of 4-3, 5-0, 3-2, and 3-2. In their game four win, Boston led 1-0 and 2-1, but they needed a run in the eighth to seal the victory. The Red Sox recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Story, Gonzalez, and Refsnyder, who all had one RBI in the win. Boston started Crochet, who allowed six hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Hicks picked up the win and Matz got the save. 

Prior to that series, the Red Sox won three out of four against the Yankees, but did lose both to the Orioles before that. Boston has won seven of their last eight games and they are currently second in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.66 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a .242 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 668 runs with a .252 batting average and a .323 on base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu (IL) has led Boston with 22 home runs and 69 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 22 home runs and 84 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Payton Tolle, who is being called up from the minors for this start. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 59-76 this season after they split four games with St. Louis by scores of 6-7, 8-3, 2-1, and 1-4. In their game four loss, Pittsburgh led 1-0 in the first inning, but didn’t score in the final eight innings for the defeat. The Pirates recorded five hits in the game and they were led by Pham, who went 1-4 with one home run and one RBI in the loss. Pittsburgh started Ashcraft, who allowed four hits and one earned run over 5.2 innings, while Ramirez picked up the loss in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Pirates won all three against the Rockies and two out of three against the Blue Jays. Pittsburgh has won six of their last eight games and they are currently last in the NL Central standings. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 3.93 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 484 runs with a .233 batting average and a .305 on base percentage this season. Oneil Cruz has led Pittsburgh with 18 home runs and 52 RBIs, while Bryan Reynolds has added 14 home runs and 66 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Paul Skenes, who is 8-9 with a 2.07 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP over 161.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Pirates

• The Red Sox have won nine of their last 10 games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have lost eight of their last nine road games against American League opponents.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in 14 of their last 16 night games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in seven of their last eight home games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last four home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in five of their last six home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in each of their last three night games against the Pirates.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last four games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Pirates’ last five road games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last six night games between the Pirates and Red Sox.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Pirates’ last eight road games against American League opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Triston Casas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Trevor Story has recorded a Double in each of the Red Sox’s last four games against NL Central opponents at Fenway Park.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Jared Triolo has recorded at least one hit in 12 of his last 13 appearances in night games against AL teams that held a winning record.
• Bryan Reynolds has hit at least one home run in two of the Pirates’ last three road games against the Red Sox.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one Double in five of the Pirates’ last six night games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (271).
• The Red Sox are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (484).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (98).

Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction 

Boston comes into this series playing extremely well, as they are starting to reel in the Blue Jays in the AL East. The Red Sox are 41-25 at home this year, while the Pirates are 20-46 on the road. Pittsburgh has also played well recently, but their offense has been brutal for most of the year. The Pirates are starting Skenes, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The Sox are going with Tolle, who is making his MLB debut, but has been great in the minors. The Pirates have the better starter, but Boston has been great at home and has the more reliable lineup. Take Boston here.