Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction 8/31/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Red Sox vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, August 31st at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 75-62 this year after they lost the first two games in this series by scores of 2-4 and 3-10. In their game two loss, Boston led 2-1 in the fourth inning, but they fell apart in the fifth and sixth for the blowout loss. The Red Sox recorded eight hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Gonzalez, who went 2-4 with two RBIs in the loss. Boston started May, who allowed eight hits and six earned runs over 5.1 innings for the loss, while Bernardino allowed two earned runs in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Red Sox won all four against the Orioles and three out of four against the Yankees. Boston has won seven of their last ten games and they are third in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.70 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .243 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 673 runs with a .252 batting average and a .323 on base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu (IL) has led Boston with 22 home runs and 69 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 22 home runs and 84 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Lucas Giolito, who is 9-2 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 119.1 innings pitched this year. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 61-76 this season after they won game two by a score of 10-3 on Saturday night. Pittsburgh led 1-0 in the first inning, but they needed a big fifth and sixth, before adding an insurance run in the ninth to seal the win. The Pirates recorded 12 hits in the game and they were led by Gonzalez, Pham, and Reynolds, who all had two RBIs in the win. Pittsburgh started Oviedo, who allowed three hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Burrows allowed one earned run in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Pirates split four games with the Cardinals and swept the Rockies in three games. Pittsburgh has won eight of their last ten games and they are currently last in the NL Central standings. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 3.90 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 498 runs with a .234 batting average and a .307 on base percentage this season. Oneil Cruz has led Pittsburgh with 19 home runs and 53 RBIs, while Bryan Reynolds has added 14 home runs and 68 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Mitch Keller, who is 6-12 with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 151.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Pirates

• The Red Sox have won each of their last 12 Sunday day games against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have lost seven of their last nine games against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in four of their last five games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four games as underdogs against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven Sunday games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Red Sox’s last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Pirates’ last five road games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last four day games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the last 12 games between the Pirates and Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Trevor Story has recorded a Double in five of the Red Sox’s last six games against NL Central opponents at Fenway Park.
• Triston Casas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Lucas Giolito has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances with the Red Sox as favorites.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has hit at least one home run in four of the Pirates’ last seven games as underdogs against the Red Sox.
• Mitch Keller has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last six road appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Tommy Pham has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with the Pirates as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Mitch Keller has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances against AL East opponents.
• Joey Bart has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Oneil Cruz ranks 4th in the league in Steals (35) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (272).
• The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for hits this season (1184).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (498).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (99).

Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction 

Pittsburgh continues to play some of their best ball of the season over the last two weeks and they are looking for the series sweep here. The Pirates are 22-46 on the road this year, while the Red Sox are 41-27 at home. Boston is fading in the AL East standings and they are starting Giolito, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Pittsburgh is going with Keller, who has allowed 3, 5, and 6 earned runs in his last three outings. Take Boston to win by at least two runs.