Red Sox vs Reds Prediction 6/30/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Red Sox vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Monday, June 30th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 41-44 this season after they lost two out of three against Toronto by scores of 0-9, 15-1, and 3-5. In their game three loss, Boston tied the game at two in the second inning, but they allowed the next three runs for the loss. The Red Sox recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Rafaela, Narvaez, and Gonzalez, who all had one RBI in the loss. Boston started Buehler, who allowed four hits and four earned runs over 4.0 innings for the loss, while Kelly allowed one earned run in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Red Sox lost all three against the Angels and two out of three against the Giants. Boston has lost seven of their last eight games and they are currently fourth in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.99 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and a .249 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 399 runs with a .248 batting average and a .321 on base percentage this season. Trevor Story has led Boston with 11 home runs and 43 RBIs, while Wilyer Abreu has added 14 home runs and 40 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Garrett Crochet, who is 7-4 with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 109.1 innings pitched this season. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 44-40 this year after they won two out of three against San Diego by scores of 8-1, 4-6, and 3-2. In their game three win, Cincinnati trailed 2-1 in the ninth inning, but scored two runs to walk off with the win. The Reds recorded nine hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Benson, Steer, and De La Cruz, who all had one RBI in the win. Cincinnati started Lodolo, who allowed seven hits and one earned run over 5.1 innings, while Pagan picked up the win in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Reds won two out of three against the Yankees, but did lose two out of three against the Cardinals before that. Cincinnati has won five of their last seven games and they are currently fourth in the NL Central standings. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a .232 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 387 runs with a .248 batting average and a .320 on base percentage this season. Elly De La Cruz has led Cincinnati with 18 home runs and 57 RBIs, while TJ Friedl has added eight home runs and 31 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Chase Burns, who is 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 5.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Reds

• The Red Sox have won each of their last four home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have lost each of their last three road games against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven night games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last three games following a home loss.
• The Reds have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven games as road underdogs.
• The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six night games against American League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds’ last six night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Red Sox’s last six night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last six games at Fenway Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last six games against National League opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Abraham Toro has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Connor Wong has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four games against the Reds.
• Garrett Crochet ranks 2nd in the league for total Strikeouts (135) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in each of the Reds’ last four road games against AL opponents.
• Spencer Steer has recorded a Double in four of the Reds’ last five games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Austin Hays has recorded at least one hit in each of his 15 previous appearances at Fenway Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T4th in the league in Steals (22) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (159).
• The Red Sox rank 28th in the league for strikeouts against this season (790).
• The Reds rank 5th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.232).
• The Reds rank 6th in the league for hits allowed this season (648).

Red Sox vs Reds Prediction 

Cincinnati comes into this series with some momentum after their comeback win on Sunday afternoon, while Boston has really struggled over the last two weeks. The Red Sox are 23-19 at home this year, while the Reds are 20-21 on the road. Boston is starting Crochet, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts. Cincinnati is going with Burns, who allowed three earned runs and six hits over five innings against the Yankees in his first start. I was impressed with how Burns navigated through the New York lineup, but I have to side with Crochet, who has been dominant all season. Take the Red Sox -1.5 here.