Red Sox vs Twins Prediction 5/3/25 MLB Picks Today

The Minnesota Twins and the Boston Red Sox meet Saturday in MLB action from Fenway Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Red Sox vs Twins Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Minnesota Twins will send out Bailey Ober for the start here, and Ober is 3-1 with a 4.13 ERA and 25 strikeouts this season. In his career, Ober is 0-2 with a 1.59 ERA and 14 strikeouts against the Red Sox. Hunter Dobbins will get the start for the Red Sox and is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 11 strikeouts this season. This will be Dobbins’ first career start against the Twins.

Minnesota Twins Recap

The Minnesota Twins come into this game looking to bounce back from a 6-1 loss at the hands of the Red Sox in Friday’s series opener to fall to 13-20 on the year. After this series, the Twins will go back home for a series against the Baltimore Orioles.

Twins Drop 4^th In A Row

Byron Buxton has 28 hits along with 4 doubles, a team-high 6 home runs, and 18 RBIs with 7 stolen bases and a pair of triples, while Carlos Correa has 25 hits with 8 doubles, and Willi Castro has 15 hits with 6 doubles as well. Harrison Bader added 3 home runs and 13 RBIs while Matt Wallner chipped in 5 doubles and a pair of triples, while Buxton contributed a team-high 41 strikeouts as well this season. Ty France has also added 32 hits, 7 doubles, 3 home runs, and 18 RBIs, and Trevor Larnach chipped in 4 home runs and 14 RBIs as well this season.

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The Red Sox have lost six of their last eight games as favorites against the Twins following a win.
• The Twins have won three of their last four day games against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six day games at Fenway Park following a home win.
• The Twins have covered the run line in four of their last five games as underdogs against American League opponents.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Harrison Bader has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Ryan Jeffers has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against AL East opponents.
• Jonah Bride has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances against AL East opponents.
• Ty France has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 appearances with his team as an underdog against the Red Sox.
• Ty France has scored at least one run in five of the Twins’ last six games as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Bailey Ober has recorded five or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 13 appearances in day games.
• Bailey Ober has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances.
• Willi Castro has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances with the Twins as underdogs against AL opponents.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to add on to their series-opening win over the Twins from Friday’s matchup to slip to 18-16 on the year. After this series, the Red Sox will take on the Texas Rangers for a series at home.

Red Sox Looking To String Wins Together

Alex Bregman leads the Red Sox with 42 hits, including a team-high 12 doubles, along with 7 home runs and 26 RBIs, while Rafael Devers has added 28 hits with 10 doubles, 5 home runs and 19 RBIs this season. Trevor Story added 33 hits with 5 home runs, 16 RBIs, and 6 stolen bases, while Jarren Duran has 39 hits with 8 doubles, 3 triples, 2 home runs, 17 RBIs, and a team-high 11 stolen bases. Kristian Campbell added 31 hits with 8 doubles, 4 homers, and 12 RBIs, while Wilyer Abreu has 6 home runs with 21 RBIs and 4 stolen bases, and Ceddanne Rafaela has 2 homers, 15 RBIs, and 7 stolen bases this season.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Twins have lost each of their last 11 games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The home team has won 14 of the Twins’ last 16 games.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line each of their last 11 games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in four of their last five games as favorites against AL Central opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Connor Wong has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Alex Bregman has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four games as favorites.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Red Sox’s last four games against AL Central opponents.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine appearances against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Alex Bregman has scored a run in each of the Red Sox’s last seven day games.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Alex Bregman ranks T2nd in the league in Hits (44) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Twins’ last seven day games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Red Sox’s last eight day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Red Sox vs Twins Prediction

I’m going to side with the under in this one. Hunter Dobbins has been solid in limited action for the Red Sox out of the gate so far, and I think he can have another strong outing against a Twins team that’s clearly struggling at the plate offensively right now. On the other side, the Red Sox face Bailey Ober, who has been pitching very well after a slow start to the year and has solid career numbers against the Red Sox as well. I’ll back the under in what could end up being a bit of a pitcher’s duel.