Reds vs Brewers Prediction 9/28/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Reds vs Brewers Prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 28^th at the American Family Field in the third game of this series, with the Reds having the 2-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers have a 96-65 record this season and are sitting on the 1st place of the NL Central. The Brewers have a 51-29 home record and are 77-79 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-7 home defeat by the Reds, and are 1-5 in their last 6 games. Under is 5-2 in their last 7 games.

The Brewers have a .258 batting average this season, .332 OBP and .403 slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.59 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Brice Turang leads the Brewers with 167 hits, while Sam Frelick is the team’s best hitter, with a .290 batting average. Christian Yelich leads the team in RBI, with 103, adding a team-high 29 home runs.

Freddy Peralta (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers, and he has a 17-6 record, 2.68 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have an 83-78 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL Central. The Reds have a 38-42 road record and are 59-92 in over/under. They are coming off a 7-4 road victory over the Brewers, and have three straight wins. Under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 games.

The Reds have a .245 batting average this season, .315 OBP and .391 slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.  Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds with 165 hits, and in RBI, with 85, while Spencer Steer adds a team-high 21 home runs. Gavin Lux is the team’s best hitter with a .269 batting average.

Brady Singer (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 14-11 record, 3.95 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends: September 28, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta      Record this season: 17-6      ERA: 2.68
• Home Record: 9-1
• Last 5 against Reds: 1-2

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

• The Brewers have won each of their last 10 day games against NL Central opponents following a home loss.
• The Reds have lost each of their last six day games against the Brewers following a win.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line each of their last six day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last four day games against the Reds following a loss.
• The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four road games.
• The Brewers have led after 5 innings in three of their last four day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brady Singer      Record this season: 14-11      ERA: 3.95
• Road Record: 6-6
• Last 5 against Brewers: 2-1

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Brewers’ last six games.
• The Brewers have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against NL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Sixteen of the Reds’ last 18 day games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Brewers’ last six games as favorites against the Reds have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last seven games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the last eight games between the Reds and Brewers at American Family Field.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Jackson Chourio has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Reds after playing the previous day.
• Brice Turang has recorded a Double in four of the Brewers’ last five games as favorites against the Reds.
• Freddy Peralta has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last nine appearances.
• Brice Turang has recorded at least one hit in each of the Brewers’ last nine games as favorites against the Reds.
• Freddy Peralta has recorded a win in six of his last seven home appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Freddy Peralta ranks 4th in the league for Wins (17) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Spencer Steer has hit at least one home run in three of his last six appearances with the Reds as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Brady Singer has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances in day games.
• Brady Singer has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances in day games.
• Jose Trevino has recorded a Double in each of his last three road appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Austin Hays has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Reds as underdogs.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks 7th in the league in Steals (37) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Brewers rank 2nd in the league for steals this season (162).
• The Brewers rank 2nd in the league for ERA this season (3.59).
• The Reds rank 7th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.233).
• The Reds rank 7th in the league for hits allowed this season (1253).

Reds vs Brewers Prediction

The Brewers are 7-5 in their last 12 meetings against the Reds, but both teams are tied 3-3 wins in their last 6 meetings in Milwaukee. Over is 4-2 in their last 6 meetings.

In this Reds vs Brewers Prediction, the Brewers are coming as -150 home favorites. If the Reds win, they are into the playoffs, not matter what, but they have to go through Freddy Peralta, who has been elite this season, and almost unhittable at home, with a 1.71 ERA. Singer has been weaker on the road for the Reds, with a 4.74 ERA, and has 3 earned runs in each of his two starts against the Brewers this season. I like the value with the home team in this matchup, so take the Milwaukee Brewers on the moneyline.