Reds vs Nationals Prediction 5/4/25 MLB Picks Today

The Washington Nationals and the Cincinnati Reds meet Sunday in MLB action from Great American Ball Park. This will be the final installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Reds vs Nationals prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Reds vs Nationals pick.

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Nationals lost their first two sets of 2025, losing two of three games against the Philadelphia Phillies and then facing a sweep against the Toronto Blue Jays. Washington then got two series victories against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers, but they would lose two more sets versus the Marlins and Pirates. Following series victories against the Rockies and Orioles, the Nationals took a split in a set against the New York Mets. The Nationals lost their first two games versus the Phillies, but rebounded for a 4-2 victory on Thursday to stop the sweep. In Friday’s opener against the Reds, Washington gave up five runs over the first three innings in a 6-1 loss. Josh Bell had the lone RBI with a solo homer, and starter Mitchell Parker gave up five earned runs on four hits and four walks in 4.0 innings.

On Saturday in game two the Nationals powered out an 11-6 win. Amed Rosario had four RBI with a homer, while Nathaniel Lowe had three hits, two RBI, and a run. Trevor Williams went 5.1 innings in the starting role with four earned runs on nine hits and two walks.

In the starter slot for the finale, the Nationals will send out MacKenzie Gore. This year so far, Gore is 2-3 with a 3.51 ERA in seven starts across 41.0 innings. Gore is 23-29 with a 4.13 ERA in 82 games (79 starts) over his career.

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

Over on the Reds’ side, they started out 2025 with losses in three straight series against the San Francisco Giants, the Texas Rangers, and the Milwaukee Brewers. Cincinnati bagged a series victory in their rematch with the Giants then would take a sweep over the Pirates. After a loss in a series against the Mariners, the Reds beat the Orioles in a set before falling in one versus the Marlins in two of three. Cincinnati dispatched the Rockies in a sweep over the weekend, then bagged a win over the Cardinals on Monday. After losses in both the Wednesday doubleheader games, Cincinnati took a Thursday win to tie the set. In Friday’s matchup, the Reds out-hit the Nationals 7-4. Starter Hunter Greene finished with 6.0 innings, one earned run, two hits, two walks, and 12 strikeouts.

In the Saturday game, Cincinnati had a good offensive night with 12 team hits, but couldn’t keep the pace later in the game. Starter Nick Lodolo lasted 5.1 frames with six earned runs on 10 hits and two walks.

Starter for Sunday will be the Reds’ Nick Martinez. This year, Martinez is 1-3 with a 4.68 ERA in six starts over 32.2 innings. Martinez is 38-48 with a 4.12 ERA in 246 career games (109 starts).

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Nationals have lost eight of their last nine road games following a win.
• The Reds have won each of their last five day games after playing the previous day.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four road games against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Reds have covered the run line in six of their last seven games after playing the previous day.
• The Nationals have lost the first inning in four of their last five day games against NL Central opponents.
• The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Nationals have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The underdogs have won four of the Reds’ last five games.
• The Reds have lost five of their last six games as favorites against the Nationals following a home loss.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 games as favorites against the Nationals following a home loss.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in eight of their last nine day games against the Reds following a win.
• The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six day games at Great American Ball Park against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eleven of the Reds’ last 12 day games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Nationals’ last four day games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last six games as favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Nationals’ last seven games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.

Reds vs Nationals Prediction

I’ll lean toward the Reds. Martinez had a fairly rough outing on April 16 versus Seattle, taking a loss with 4.2 innings and three earned runs. In his two starts combined since then, however, Martinez is 1-0 with three earned in 11.2 innings on 10 hits and four walks. As for Gore, he hasn’t done too badly himself over the last three starts, despite a tepid 1-1 record. Gore has gone 6.0 innings in each of those for a total of 18.0 frames, giving up seven earned on 13 hits and three walks.

Cincinnati got multiple hits from three different guys on the offense during the Saturday loss, so it was a pretty solid night for that unit. That said, the bats couldn’t dig out of the hole, and the game went down as an L. Things need to be better on the mound Sunday, starting with Martinez.