Reds vs Orioles Prediction 7/4/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Reds vs Orioles prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, July 4th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 40-47 this year after they lost game one by a score of 3-0 on Friday night. Cincinnati pitched very well in the game, but their offense never woke up in the loss. The Reds recorded four hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by De La Cruz, who went 1-3 with two walks. Singer allowed three hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings for the loss, while Petty threw 1.2 innings in relief. Prior to this series, Cincinnati lost three out of four against the Brewers, but did win two out of three against the Pirates before that. 

This season, Cincinnati has a 4.56 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and a .249 opponent batting average, while they have scored 364 runs with a .227 batting average and a .309 on base percentage. Sal Stewart has led the Reds with 17 home runs and 60 RBIs, while Elly De La Cruz has added 13 home runs and 40 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Hunter Greene, who is making his first appearance of the year due to injury. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 41-48 this season after they won game one by a score of 3-0 last night. Baltimore took a 1-0 lead in the first inning and added two more in the third in the shutout win. The Orioles recorded four hits in the game and they were led by Basallo, who went 1-3 with one home run and two RBIs. Rogers allowed two hits and zero earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Wells picked up the save. Prior to this series, Baltimore lost two out of three against the White Sox and two out of three against the Nationals. 

This season, Baltimore has a 4.34 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP and a .253 opponent batting average, while they have scored 406 runs with a .238 batting average and a .318 on base percentage. Pete Alonso has led the Orioles with 19 home runs and 59 RBIs, while Gunnar Henderson has added 16 home runs and 39 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Brandon Young, who is 6-2 with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 72.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won each of their last four home games against American League opponents following a home loss.
• The Orioles have lost each of their last four night games after playing the previous day.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last six Saturday home games against American League opponents.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games after playing the previous day.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Reds have lost each of their last seven night games after playing the previous day.
• The Orioles have won each of their last three games as underdogs against the Reds.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line each of their last eight night games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The road team has covered the run line in eight of the last nine games between the Orioles and Reds.
• The Orioles have won the first inning in three of their last four games at Great American Ball Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in five of their last six road games.
• The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight night games against American League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Reds’ last eight night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Orioles’ last four night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the Reds’ last eight games.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the Orioles’ last eight road games.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Eugenio Suarez has hit at least one home run in two of the Reds’ last three games as favorites.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded two or more hits in each of his last five appearances with the Reds as favorites against AL opponents.
• Hunter Greene has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last eight appearances with the Reds as home favorites.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Samuel Basallo has hit at least one home run in each of the Orioles’ last two road games.
• Brandon Young has recorded five or more strikeouts in six of his last eight appearances with the Orioles as underdogs.
• Adley Rutschman has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight road appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Brandon Young has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances with the Orioles as road underdogs.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Reds rank 29th in the league for hits this season (663).
• The Reds rank 29th in the league for batting average this season (.227).
• The Orioles rank 27th in the league for strikeouts against this season (816).
• The Orioles rank 5th in the league for walks this season (339).

Reds vs Orioles Prediction

Baltimore comes into this matchup on a two game winning streak and they have allowed just one run in those two games. The Orioles are 17-25 on the road this year, while the Reds are 19-23 at home. Cincinnati has lost four of their last five games and they have scored two runs or fewer in three of their last four. The Reds are starting Greene, who is coming off of the IL for the first time this year, while Young has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. I am going to go with the Orioles here, as I don’t know what Greene is going to look like this year.