Reds vs Phillies Prediction 8/11/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Reds vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Monday, August 11th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 62-57 this year after they split four games with Pittsburgh by scores of 0-7, 2-3, 2-1, and 14-8. In their game four win, Cincinnati had their lead cut to 9-8 in the eighth inning, but they added five more runs in the ninth to secure the victory. The Reds recorded 14 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Marte and Steer, who both had four RBIs in the win. Cincinnati started Littell, who allowed nine hits and four earned runs over 4.2 innings, while Barlow picked up the win. 

Prior to that series, the Reds won two out of three against the Cubs, but lost two out of three against the Braves before that. Cincinnati has won four of their last seven games and they are currently third in the NL Central standings. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.88 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .235 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 539 runs with a .246 batting average and a .318 on base percentage this season. Elly De La Cruz has led Cincinnati with 19 home runs and 74 RBIs, while Spencer Steer has added 14 home runs and 54 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Andrew Abbott, who is 8-2 with a 2.34 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 115.1 innings pitched this year. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 68-49 this season after they swept Texas in three games by scores of 9-1, 3-2, and 4-2. In their game three win, Philadelphia trailed 2-0 in the first inning, but they scored the last four runs in the game for the victory. The Phillies recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Marsh, Harper, Sosa, and Wilson, who all had one RBI in the win. Philadelphia started Wheeler, who allowed three hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Duran picked up the save. 

Prior to that series, the Phillies won two out of three against the Orioles and two out of three against the Tigers. Philadelphia has won six of their last seven games and they are currently first in the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.70 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and a .243 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 551 runs with a .255 batting average and a .327 on base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with 41 home runs and 95 RBIs, while Nick Castellanos has added 15 home runs and 60 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Taijuan Walker, who is 4-5 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 79.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Reds will beat the Phillies

• The Reds have won each of their last five night games following a road win.
• The Phillies have lost 10 of their last 12 games at Great American Ball Park following a road win.
• The Reds have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five road games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last three night games at Great American Ball Park against NL East opponents.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Phillies’ last six night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Reds’ last six games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last seven games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last six games as favorites against National League opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Trevino has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Will Benson has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T5th in the league in Steals (31) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games as underdogs.
• Taijuan Walker has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last eight Monday appearances against teams that held a winning record.
• Taijuan Walker has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against the Reds.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 13 games at Great American Ball Park.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one Double in each of the Phillies’ last five games at Great American Ball Park.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks T2nd in the league in Home Runs (41) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Reds rank 6th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.235).
• The Reds rank 6th in the league for hits allowed this season (932).
• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (1070).
• The Phillies are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.

Reds vs Phillies Prediction 

Philadelphia rolls into this contest as one of the hottest teams in the MLB and they are pulling away in the NL East, but they will be on the road here. The Phillies are 31-28 on the road this year, while the Reds are 33-26 at home. Cincinnati got the series split in Pittsburgh and they are starting Abbott, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The Phillies are going with Walker, who has allowed a total of two earned runs in his last two outings. I do think Walker has shown some solid improvement, but I really like how Abbott has pitched this year. Take the Reds to win.