Brewers vs Pirates Prediction 8/11/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Brewers vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Monday, August 11th at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are 73-44 this season after they swept the Mets in three games by scores of 3-2, 7-4, and 7-6. In their game three win, Milwaukee trailed 4-0 in the fourth and 6-3 in the fifth, but they were able to score the last four runs to steal the win. The Brewers recorded 12 hits in the game and they were led by Ortiz and Contreras, who both had three RBIs in the win. Milwaukee started Priester, who allowed 10 hits and six earned runs over 4.1 innings, while Mears picked up the win. 

Prior to that series, the Brewers swept the Braves in three games and the Nationals in three games. Milwaukee has won nine games in a row and they are currently first in the NL Central standings. The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.63 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .231 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 587 runs with a .257 batting average and a .330 on base percentage this season. Christian Yelich has led Milwaukee with 21 home runs and 74 RBIs, while William Contreras has added 12 home runs and 52 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Freddy Peralta, who is 13-5 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 130.2 innings pitched this season. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 51-68 this year after they split four games with Cincinnati by scores of 7-0, 3-2, 1-2, and 8-14. In their game four loss, Pittsburgh cut the deficit to 9-8 in the eighth inning, but they fell apart in the ninth in the loss. The Pirates recorded 16 hits in the game and they were led by Kiner-Falefa, who went 3-5 with two RBIs in the loss. Pittsburgh started Burrows, who allowed three hits and four earned runs over 5.0 innings, while Ramirez allowed three earned runs in relief for the loss. 

Prior to that series, the Pirates lost two out of three against the Giants and two out of three against the Rockies. Pittsburgh has lost four of their last six games and they are currently last in the NL Central standings. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a .237 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 426 runs with a .233 batting average and a .305 on base percentage this season. Oneil Cruz has led Pittsburgh with 18 home runs and 51 RBIs, while Bryan Reynolds has added 11 home runs and 56 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Andrew Heaney, who is 5-9 with a 4.77 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 115.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Brewers will beat the Pirates

• The Brewers have won each of their last 12 night games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have lost seven of their last eight road games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last seven night games following a home win.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 road games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Brewers have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Brewers have led after 5 innings in each of their last six games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Brewers’ last 10 games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Pirates’ last five night games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Pirates’ last eight games as road underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Brewers’ last 10 games.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• William Contreras has hit at least one home run in three of the Brewers’ last four games as home favorites.
• Christian Yelich has recorded at least one hit in each of the Brewers’ last 15 games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Andrew Vaughn has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Andrew McCutchen has hit a home run in four of his last nine road appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Andrew Heaney has recorded four or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 13 appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Tommy Pham has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances with the Pirates as underdogs against the Brewers.
• Oneil Cruz ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (34) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Brewers rank 2nd in the league for steals this season (129).
• The Brewers rank 3rd in the league for batting average this season (.257).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (426).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (83).

Brewers vs Pirates Prediction 

Milwaukee comes into this matchup looking to get their 10th win in a row, as they continue to dominate over the last few weeks. The Brewers are 39-20 at home this year, while the Pirates are 17-39 on the road. Pittsburgh is the lowest scoring team in the MLB and they will face Peralta, who has allowed one earned run in three of his last five starts. The Pirates are starting Heaney, who has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last five outings. We have seen some inconsistencies from Peralta recently, but I can’t fade the Brewers right now. Take Milwaukee -1.5 here.