Reds vs Pirates Prediction 3/30/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Reds vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Monday, March 30th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 2-1 this season after they won game three against the Red Sox by a score of 3-2 on Sunday afternoon. Cincinnati trailed 2-0 in the sixth inning, but they hit a three run homer to get the win. The Reds recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Suarez, who went 1-3 with one home run and three RBIs. Lowder allowed three hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings in the no decision, while Burke got the win and Pagan picked up the save. 

This season, Cincinnati has a 3.10 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and a .250 opponent batting average, while they have scored 9 runs with a .204 batting average and a .299 on base percentage. Eugenio Suarez has led the Reds with one home run and four RBIs, while Sal Stewart has added one home run and two RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Chase Burns, who went 0-3 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 43.1 innings pitched last season. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 1-2 this year after they defeated the Mets in game three by a score of 4-3 in extra innings on Sunday. Pittsburgh blew a 1-0 and 2-1 lead, but they scored two runs in the top of the 10th and hung on for the win. The Pirates recorded seven hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by O’Hearn, who went 3-5 with two RBIs. Mlodzinski allowed six hits and two earned runs over 4.1 innings in the no decision, while Santana got the win and Urquidy picked up the save. 

This season, Pittsburgh has a 4.82 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and a .241 opponent batting average, while they have scored 13 runs with a .246 batting average and a .321 on base percentage. Brandon Lowe has led the Pirates with three home runs and four RBIs, while Ryan O’Hearn has added one home run and three RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Braxton Ashcraft, who went 4-4 with a 2.71 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 69.2 innings pitched last year. 

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won eight of their last nine home games after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last four games following an extra innings win.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five night games after going to extra innings.
• The Reds have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 Monday games as favorites against the Pirates.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games against National League opponents.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The underdogs have won three of the last four games between the Pirates and Reds.
• The Reds have lost 10 of their last 11 night games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against the Reds.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Pirates’ last 10 games as underdogs against the Reds have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the last five games between the Pirates and Reds at Great American Ball Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last eight games as home favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last five games at Great American Ball Park.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Tyler Stephenson has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Reds as favorites.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last eight night games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one Double in each of his last five Monday appearances against NL Central teams that held a losing record.
• Sal Stewart ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.700) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances after playing the previous day.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Brandon Lowe ranks T2nd in the league in Home Runs (3) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Reds rank 25th in the league for runs scored this season (9).
• The Reds rank T7th in the league for triples this season (0).
• The Pirates rank T28th in the league for steals this season (0).
• The Pirates rank 6th in the league for hits this season (29).

Reds vs Pirates Prediction 

Pittsburgh played the Mets tough in their opening series, but they lost two out of three, but did go to extra innings twice. The Pirates are starting Ashcraft, who will try to recapture his magic from last year. Cincinnati has won two in a row and they got a huge hit from Suarez on Sunday. The Reds are starting Burns, who has plenty of hype, but he had some struggles last year. I don’t expect a ton of runs in this one, but I do lean towards the Reds at home.