Reds vs Pirates Prediction 4/11/25 MLB Picks Today

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds meet on Friday in MLB action from Great American Ball Park. This will be the first installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Reds vs Pirates prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Reds vs Pirates pick.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pirates didn’t do very well in their opening series versus the Miami Marlins, losing three of four games. Pittsburgh had a similar outcome in their second matchup versus the Tampa Bay Rays, losing two of three. The Pirates would lose two of three once again in their third set versus the New York Yankees last weekend. After a split in the first two games with the St. Louis Cardinals this week—8-4 (win) and 5-3 (loss)—on Wednesday, Pittsburgh scored both their runs in the 12th and 13th innings on the way to a tense 2-1 victory. Joey Bart (two hits) and Tommy Pham (two walks) each had an RBI, while Ke’Bryan Hayes (hit; walk) and Alexander Canario (walk) each scored a run. Starting pitcher Mitch Keller was great with 7.1 clean frames, four hits, one walk, and six strikeouts.

In the starting pitcher slot for the Pirates on Friday, it’ll be Bailey Falter. This year, Falter is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA in his two starts and 10.0 innings total. Falter is 18-24 with a 4.72 ERA in 90 games (61 starts) over his MLB career.

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

Over on the Reds’ side, they kicked things off versus the San Francisco Giants but only won one of those three games in the opening series. Cincinnati beat the Texas Rangers in game one of their matchup, then lost the next pair. Likewise, with last weekend’s series against the Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati won Saturday’s matchup 11-7 but fell in the other three. The Reds finally got a series win over the San Francisco Giants this week, winning 2-0 and 1-0 in the first pair. In the finale Wednesday, Cincinnati also played an extra-innings game. The Reds came out on the losing end, however, falling 8-6 after giving up four runs in the sixth inning and two more in the bottom of the 10th. Gavin Lux put up a run and a pair of RBI, while Elly De La Cruz had two RBI, two hits, and a run of his own. Starting pitcher Nick Martinez had a choppy outing with 5.2 innings, four earned runs, seven hits, one walk, and eight strikeouts.

As the starting pitcher for Friday, the Reds are sending out Brady Singer. So far this year, Singer is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts and 12.0 innings total. In his career as an MLB player, Singer is 38-44 with a 4.25 ERA in 129 games (126 starts).

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won each of their last four home games against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last four road games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last seven night games against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL Central opponents following a home win.
• The Reds have won the first inning in each of their last three night games against the Pirates.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six Friday games as underdogs.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against NL Central opponents.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Pirates’ last four games.
• The Reds have lost each of their last three games as favorites after going to extra innings.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last 13 games as underdogs after going to extra innings.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games as home favorites after going to extra innings.
• The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games against opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds’ last five games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Pirates’ last four road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Reds’ last nine games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Pirates’ last six games as underdogs against National League opponents.

Reds vs Pirates Prediction

I’ll lean toward the Reds. Singer has been pretty good so far, notching wins in both of his starts. He opened with 7.0 clean frames, one hit, and two walks against the Rangers. Start number two was a little harrier, with 5.0 innings, three earned, nine hits, and a walk against the Milwaukee Brewers. Singer has a nice strikeout rate (15 in 12.0 innings) in the early going. As for Falter, he started out well enough in his opening appearance versus the Marlins on March 29. In that one, Singer put up two earned on seven hits and no walks in a no-decision over 6.0 frames. He wasn’t great against the Yankees on April 5, though, coughing up seven earned on seven hits and a walk in 4.0 innings during a loss.

Cincinnati had some choppy bullpen appearances in their last matchup versus the Giants on Wednesday, but a couple of the guys did pretty well. The Reds have scored two or fewer runs in three of the last four games, though (a 2-2 run), so it’d be nice to see them hang a few runs early on in Friday’s matchup.