Reds vs Pirates Prediction 7/30/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Reds vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, July 30th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 50-57 this season after they lost two out of three against the Guardians by scores of 5-6, 2-0, and 1-6. In game three, Cincinnati cut the deficit to 4-1 in the sixth inning, but couldn’t get any closer in the loss. The Reds recorded six hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Marte, who went 1-4 with one RBI. Singer allowed six hits and zero earned runs over 4.1 innings for the loss, while Petty allowed two earned runs in relief. Prior to that series, Cincinnati won two out of three against the Cardinals and two out of three against the Mariners. 

This season, Cincinnati has a 4.43 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP and a .246 opponent batting average, while they have scored 440 runs with a .229 batting average and a .307 on base percentage. Sal Stewart has led the Reds with 22 home runs and 79 RBIs, while Elly De La Cruz has added 18 home runs and 47 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Rhett Lowder, who is 3-7 with a 5.61 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP over 77.0 innings pitched this season. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 55-54 this year after they lost two out of three against the Diamondbacks by scores of 3-2, 7-8, and 0-3. In game three, Pittsburgh allowed two runs in the fourth inning and one in the sixth in the shutout loss. The Pirates recorded five hits in the game and they were led by Reynolds, who went 1-3 with one walk. Jones allowed four hits and three earned runs over 6.0 innings for the loss, while Mlodzinski threw three scoreless innings in relief. Prior to that series, Pittsburgh lost two out of three against the Cubs and two out of three against the Yankees. 

This season, Pittsburgh has a 4.28 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and a .241 opponent batting average, while they have scored 563 runs with a .260 batting average and a .336 on base percentage. Brandon Lowe has led the Pirates with 22 home runs and 69 RBIs, while Ryan O’Hearn has added 17 home runs and 69 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Yohan Ramirez, who is 6-3 with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over 56.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The underdogs have won seven of the Reds’ last eight games.
• The Pirates have lost seven of their last eight night games after playing the previous day.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Pirates’ last six games.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games at Great American Ball Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games at Great American Ball Park against opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won each of their last four road games following a loss.
• The Reds have lost five of their last six home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight road games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five home games.
• The Pirates have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as favorites against NL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Pirates’ last 10 games as favorites against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Reds’ last seven night games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in nine of the Reds’ last 10 home games against National League opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the Pirates’ last eight games.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Eugenio Suarez has hit a home run in three of the Reds’ last four games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Rhett Lowder has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with the Reds as home underdogs.
• Sal Stewart has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 14 games against NL Central opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last three games against the Reds.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with the Pirates as favorites.

Reds vs Pirates Prediction 

Pittsburgh comes into this matchup after a series loss to the Diamondbacks and they have scored three runs or fewer in three of their last five games. The Pirates are 26-26 on the road this year, while the Reds are 23-30 at home. Cincinnati has alternated wins and losses over their last five games and they have scored two runs or fewer in three of their last five. The Reds are starting Lowder, who has allowed 10 earned runs in his last 7.1 innings, while Ramirez will be an opener. I don’t have any faith in Lowder, so give me the Pirates here.