Boston Red Sox (21-20) vs. Kansas City Royals (24-17)
May 11, 2025 2:10 pm EDT
The Line: Kansas City Royals -135 / Boston Red Sox 114; Over/Under: 8.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article, we will formulate a Royals vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, May 11, at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Boston Red Sox (21-20, 10-11 Away) lost the series to the Blue Jays and Twins before beating the Rangers. They opened the current series against the Royals with a 2-1 loss in extra innings, but bounced back with a big 10-1 victory on Saturday. Rafael Devers and Trevor Story led the offense with three RBI, while Garrett Crochet got the win after allowing one run on seven hits with nine strikeouts and one walk across 7.0 innings of work.
This year, the Red Sox average 4.93 runs per game (7th in the MLB) on a .254/.327/.418 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Red Sox’s staff has a 3.72 ERA (10th) and 1.29 WHIP (18th). Alex Bregman leads the Red Sox with a .319 batting average, nine home runs, and 31 RBI this season.
Lucas Giolito will take the mound for the Red Sox on Sunday. The 25-year-old right-hander has a 0-1 record in two starts this year with an 8.38 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in 9.2 innings.
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview
The Kansas City Royals (24-17, 16-6 Home) are hoping to win their eighth consecutive series after sweeping the likes of the Rays, White Sox, and defeating the Orioles, among others. They opened this series against the Red Sox with a narrow victory, but succumbed to a 10-1 defeat in Game 2. It was the first time this season the Royals allowed double-digit runs. Cole Ragans took the loss after allowing four runs on seven hits with eight strikeouts and two walks in 5.0 innings.
This year, the Royals average 3.46 runs per game (26th in the MLB) on a .244/.303/.364 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Royals’ staff has a 2.99 ERA (2nd) and 1.17 WHIP (7th). Vinnie Pasquantino leads the Royals with a .223 batting average, six home runs, and 24 RBI this season.
The projected starting pitcher for the Royals is Seth Lugo, who is 3-3 in eight starts this season, with a 2.84 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 50.2 innings.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Royals’ last four day games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the Red Sox’s last five games as underdogs against the Royals have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Royals’ last nine games against American League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last four games against American League opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Royals rank 2nd in the league for ERA this season (2.99).
- The Royals rank 3rd in the league for runs allowed this season (134).
- The Red Sox are one of only two teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
- The Red Sox rank 3rd in the league for doubles this season (78).
Royals vs Red Sox Prediction
The Red Sox won seven of the previous ten H2H encounters, including five of the last seven. Lucas Giolitio’s quality significantly dropped after numerous injuries, and this season he is clearly struggling. I am backing the Royals to score multiple runs off him in the first few innings. Giolito allowed a .291 BA in 117 at-bats against the Royals. Seth Lugo, on the other hand, is having a strong campaign so far, but he allowed a .283 BA in 53 at-bats against the Red Sox, so Boston’s batter will surely have a chance to do damage early on. Go with the Over.
