San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers Prediction 3/28/26 MLB Picks Today

The Detroit Tigers and the San Diego Padres meet Saturday in MLB action from Petco Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Detroit Tigers will send out Jack Flaherty for the start here and Flaherty is 8-15 with a 4.64 ERA and 188 strikeouts last season. In his last five starts against the Padres, Flaherty is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 32 strikeouts. Randy Vasquez will start for the Padres here and was 6-7 with a 3.84 ERA and 78 strikeouts last season. This will be Vasquez’s second career start against the Tigers. 

Detroit Tigers Recap

The Detroit Tigers come into this game looking for another win after their 5-2 win over San Diego on Friday to improve to 2-0 on the year. After this series, the Tigers will head on the road for a series against the Diamondbacks.

Tigers Pushing For Sweep

Dillon Dingler leads the Tigers with 3 hits including a home run and 4 RBIs while Kevin McGonigle has 5 hits with a pair of doubles and 4 RBIs. Spencer Torkelson, Gleyber Torres and Colt Keith all have a pair of hits while Parker Meadows has a hit and two RBI and Riley Greene has an RBI as well on the year. 

Why the Detroit Tigers will win

• The Tigers have won each of their last 12 games against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have lost each of their last five home games against American League opponents.
• The Tigers have covered the run line each of their last eight night games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against American League opponents.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Spencer Torkelson has recorded a Double in four of the Tigers’ last five games as road favorites against NL West opponents.
• Jack Flaherty has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances in night games against NL West teams that held a losing record.
• Jack Flaherty has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his five previous appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL West opponents.
• Gleyber Torres has recorded at least one hit in each of his 12 previous road appearances against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
• Jake Rogers has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances with the Tigers as favorites against NL opponents.
• Riley Greene ranked T10th in the league in Home Runs (36) last season.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to shake off their loss to the Tigers on Friday to fall to 0-2 on the year. After this series, the Padres will take on the rival San Francisco Giants in a series at home.

Padres Looking To Salvage Something From Series

Xander Bogaerts has a team-high 3 hits with a double and an RBI while Ramon Laureano has 2 hits with a double, a home run and two RBIs. Jackson Merrill and Manny achado each have a pair of hits with a double and Jake Cronenworth has two hits as well this season. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Miguel Andujar have each chipped in base knocks as well this season.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Tigers have lost each of their last seven games as favorites following a win.
• The Padres have won each of their last 10 Saturday games against AL Central opponents.
• The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites following a win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last nine Saturday games against AL Central opponents.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit a home run in two of his last three home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jackson Merrill has recorded a Double in five of his last six appearances in night games against AL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances with his team as a home underdog against AL Central opponents.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. ranked 10th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.368) last season.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Tigers’ last eight road games against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Padres’ last seven games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres Prediction

I’m on the over here. I don’t trust either one of these starting pitching options in this game, as Flaherty’s a decent arm that really struggled on the road last season and the Padres finally get to face a right-handed pitcher here. On the other side, Randy Vasquez is a fringe starter that’s the weak link of this Padres rotation in my opinion, and I think he gives up runs early and often here to help push us over this number.