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Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction 7-5-24 Picks

Toronto Blue Jays (39-48) vs. Seattle Mariners (48-41)
July 5, 2024 9:40 pm EDT
The Line: Seattle Mariners -147 / Toronto Blue Jays +124; Over/Under: +7.5
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In this article we will formulate a Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 5th at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.

Mariners Snapped Their Losing Streak 

The Seattle Mariners are 48-41 this season and they have lost four of their last five games. Seattle is coming off of a series loss against Baltimore, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Mariners lost two out of three against the Twins, lost two out of three against the Rays, and lost two out of three against the Marlins. Seattle is 3-7 in their last ten games and they are leading the AL West, but their lead is shrinking. 

The Seattle pitching staff has a 3.56 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a .220 opponent batting average. The Mariners offense has scored 340 runs with a .216 batting average and a .297 on base percentage. Cal Raleigh is batting .198 with 15 home runs and 51 RBI’s for the Mariners this season. Seattle has scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games. 

Blue Jays are Playing High Scoring Games 

The Toronto Blue Jays are 39-48 this year and they have lost four of their last five games. Toronto is coming off of a series loss against Houston, where they lost three out of four games. Prior to that series, the Blue Jays split four games with the Yankees, split two games with the Red Sox, and lost all three against the Guardians. Toronto is 4-12 in their last 16 games and they are last in the AL East. 

The Toronto pitching staff has a 4.37 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a .253 opponent batting average. The Blue Jays offense has scored 348 runs with a .235 batting average and a .312 on base percentage. Vladimir Guerrero is batting .296 with 13 home runs and 50 RBI’s for the Blue Jays this season. Toronto has combined for at least nine runs in 10 of their last 12 games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Seattle is Luis Castillo, who is 6-9 with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 104.2 innings pitched this year. Castillo has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Toronto is Kevin Gausman, who is 6-7 with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP over 91.0 innings pitched this season. Gausman has allowed at least three earned runs in four straight starts. 

Why the Mariners will beat the Blue Jays

  • The Mariners have won each of their last nine Friday home games against American League opponents.
  • The Blue Jays have lost each of their last eight Friday night games against American League opponents.
  • The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line each of their last nine games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
  • The favorites have covered the run line in four of the Blue Jays’ last five games.
  • The Mariners have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Friday home games.

Total Runs Facts

  • Each of the Blue Jays’ last six night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • Seven of the Mariners’ last eight games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last six games between the Blue Jays and Mariners.
  • The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last four night games.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

  • Mitch Garver has hit a home run in each of the Mariners’ last three night games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Mitch Garver has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Mariners’ last four night games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Luis Castillo has recorded a win in five of his last six home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Josh Rojas has recorded at least one Single in six of his last seven home appearances against AL East opponents.
  • J.P. Crawford has scored at least one run in each of his last 11 Friday appearances.
  • Mitch Garver has recorded at least one total base in each of his last eight appearances against AL East opponents.
  • Luis Castillo has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last six home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Mitch Haniger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against the Blue Jays after playing the previous day.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

  • Alejandro Kirk has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Blue Jays as underdogs against AL opponents.
  • Danny Jansen has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games against AL West teams that held a winning record.
  • Kevin Gausman has recorded a win in each of his last five road appearances.
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has scored at least one run in each of the Blue Jays’ last five games against the Mariners.
  • Kevin Gausman has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances against the Mariners.
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded at least one hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last 15 road games against AL opponents.
  • Justin Turner has recorded an RBI in four of his last five appearances in night games against AL teams that held a winning record.
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded at least one total base in each of the Blue Jays’ last 15 road games against AL opponents.

Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction 

Seattle is coming off of a series loss at home against the Orioles, but they are still 29-16 at home this season. The Mariners have been leading the AL West for a while, but Houston is only a couple of games back. Toronto is just 18-24 on the road this year and their pitching staff has not been very good. On the other side, the Mariners pitching staff has been elite, while their offense has let them down. I really don’t like how either starting pitcher has looked recently, but I also don’t trust either offense in this matchup. Seattle has been great at home this season, so my Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays prediction is for the Mariners to get another home win. 

David Racey's Free Pick: Mariners ML

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David Racey

David started writing about sports in 2015, but sports has been his passion for as long as he can remember. David spends most of his free time watching pretty much anything sports related from Baseball to Tennis and everything in between. David likes to analyze statistics and recent results to form an unbiased opinion on whatever game he is breaking down. Follow David on Twitter at @itsyerboi41

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