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Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Prediction 7-5-24 Picks

Houston Astros (44-42) vs. Minnesota Twins (48-38)
July 5, 2024 8:10 pm EDT
The Line: Minnesota Twins -147 / Houston Astros +124; Over/Under: -
(Get latest betting odds)

The Houston Astros and the Minnesota Twins meet Friday in MLB action from Target Field. Here’s a Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros prediction. This will be the first installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game.

Houston Astros Betting Preview

This week the Astros took on the Toronto Blue Jays. Houston lost 7-6 on Tuesday but won two of the first three games 3-1 and 9-2 otherwise. On Thursday the Astros blew an early 3-0 lead but still won 5-3. Framber Valdez gave up the three earned in 6.0 innings during the start.

In the starter role for Houston on Friday it’ll be Shawn Dubin. So far this year Dubin is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in 15 games (one start). Dubin is 1-1 with a 5.45 ERA in 18 career games (two starts).

Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

Over on the Twins’ side, they’re coming off a series versus the Detroit Tigers. Minnesota won 5-3 in the opener then fell 9-2 in game two. In the rubber match the Twins cruised to a blowout win 12-3. Starter Bailey Ober lasted 6.0 innings with one earned run.

Pablo Lopez will take the starter role for the Twins on Friday. This year Lopez is 8-6 with a 4.88 ERA in 17 starts. He’s got 110 Ks in 94.0 total innings. Over his 143 career starts Lopez is 47-45 with a 3.98 ERA.

Twins vs Astros Pick Injury Notes

Astros RF Kyle Tucker (lower leg) won’t return from the IL before the All-Star break.

Twins 3B Royce Lewis hit the 10-day IL Wednesday with a right adductor strain.

Total Runs Facts

  • Eight of the Astros’ last nine games against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
  • Each of the Twins’ last four games have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last eight night games against AL Central opponents.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Twins’ last five night games.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

  • Pablo Lopez has recorded a win in six of his last seven appearances against AL West opponents.
  • Jose Miranda has recorded at least one Single in each of the Twins’ last eight games.
  • Byron Buxton has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight appearances.
  • Trevor Larnach has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Astros.
  • Carlos Correa has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Twins’ last six home games against AL West opponents.
  • Jose Miranda has recorded at least one total base in each of the Twins’ last eight games.
  • Byron Buxton has recorded a Double in six of his last seven appearances against AL opponents.
  • Jose Miranda has recorded at least one hit in each of the Twins’ last eight games.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

  • Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one Double in each of the Astros’ last three games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jose Altuve has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last 10 night games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances in night games against AL Central teams that held a winning record.
  • Yordan Alvarez has scored at least one run in each of his last nine road appearances.
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit a home run in four of the Astros’ last five road games against AL opponents.
  • Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Astros’ last five games against AL opponents.
  • Jose Altuve has recorded at least one total base in each of the Astros’ last 10 night games against opponents that held a winning record.

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Prediction

I’ll stay with the Twins. Lopez had a rough start back on June 18 versus the Rays, posting five earned in 4.0 innings during a no-decision. Since then Lopez has been great in a pair of wins, though. In those two Lopez has 14.0 innings with one earned on six hits and two walks.

On Thursday the Twins didn’t have a ton of difficulties, bagging 14 team hits and four runs in the fourth inning alone. Minnesota’s Jose Miranda (5-for-5; four runs; three RBI) had a spectacular day, as did a few other hitters. I like Minnesota to keep it up Friday.

Andrew's Free Pick: Minnesota Twins -147

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Andrew

Andrew has been writing about college, professional and fantasy sports betting since 2013. Andrew's goal is to break down the complicated numbers and trends into a language that's easily accessible to novice sports bettors and seasoned professionals alike.

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