Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 5-22-24 Picks

In this article we will formulate a Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, May 22nd at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in the series. 

Rays on a Small Losing Streak 

The Tampa Bay Rays are 25-25 this season and they have lost three games in a row. Tampa Bay has dropped the first two games in this series and they have allowed 10 runs so far. Prior to this series, the Rays won two out of three against Toronto, won three out of four against Boston, and lost two out of three against the Yankees. Despite the recent losing streak, the Rays have played better over the last month, but they are fourth in the AL East behind the Yankees, Orioles, and Red Sox. 

The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 4.32 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .242 opponent batting average. The Rays offense has scored 200 runs with a .239 batting average and a .309 on base percentage. Yandy Diaz is batting .256 with three home runs and 23 RBI’s for the Rays this season. Tampa Bay is 20th in team ERA this year and they have allowed at least four runs in seven of their last ten games. 

Red Sox are Over .500

The Boston Red Sox are 25-24 this year and they have won three games in a row. Boston has won the first two games in this series by scores of 5-0 and 5-2. Prior to this series, the Red Sox lost two out of three against St. Louis, lost three out of four against Tampa Bay, and won two out of three against Washington. Boston is just 6-8 in their last 14 games and they are third in the AL East behind the Yankees and Orioles. 

The Boston pitching staff has a 2.95 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a .226 opponent batting average. The Red Sox offense has scored 217 runs with a .244 batting average and a .313 on base percentage. Rafael Devers is batting .285 with 10 home runs and 23 RBI’s for the Red Sox this season. Boston has the second best team ERA in all of baseball, but they have allowed at least four runs in six of their last nine games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Brayan Bello, who is 4-2 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 36.1 innings pitched this year. Bello has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, but did allow five earned runs and seven hits in his last start in St. Louis. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Ryan Pepiot, who is 3-2 with a 3.68 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP over 36.2 innings pitched this season. Pepiot has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts, but he is coming off of the IL and hasn’t pitched since May 5th. 

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

The Rays have won each of their last seven Wednesday home games against AL East opponents.
The Red Sox have lost 15 of their last 18 games at Tropicana Field.
The Rays have covered the run line each of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in 17 of their last 20 night games against AL East opponents.
The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Wednesday games against the Red Sox at Tropicana Field.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

The road team has won seven of the last eight games between the Red Sox and Rays.
The Rays have lost five of their last six games at Tropicana Field.
The road team has covered the run line in each of the last eight games between the Red Sox and Rays.
The Rays have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games at Tropicana Field.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Red Sox’s last 10 road games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Nine of the Rays’ last 10 night games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 

Boston comes into this game playing their best baseball on the road, where they are 15-11 so far this year. The Red Sox have won the first two games in this series, and they will turn to Brayan Bello, who has been good for most of the season so far. Tampa Bay’s offense has been absent over the last three games, but they are starting Ryan Pepiot, who was very good before getting hurt. I think both pitchers will have strong outings here, and my Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox prediction is for this game to go under the total.