Tigers vs Red Sox Prediction 9/28/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Tigers vs Red Sox Prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 28^th at the Fenway Park in the third game of this series, with both teams being tied 1-1 wins. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have an 88-73 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the AL East. The Red Sox have a 47-33 home record and are 76-81 in over/under. They are coming off a 1-2 home defeat by the Tigers, and under is 4-1 in their last 5 games.

The Red Sox have a .254 batting average this season, .323 OBP and .421 slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.71 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Trevor Story leads the Red Sox with 161 hits, while is the team’s best hitter, with a .265 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 96, adding a team-high 25 home runs.

The Red Sox have not announced a starting pitcher for this game yet.

Detroit Tigers Preview

The Detroit Tigers have an 87-74 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the AL Central. The Tigers have a 41-39 road record and are 83-70 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-1 road win over the Red Sox, but still are 2-9 in their last 11 games. Under is 5-1 in their last 6 games.

The Tigers have a .247 batting average this season, .316 OBP and .414 slugging percentage. Detroit’s pitching staff has a 3.94 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Riley Greene leads the Tigers with 155 hits, adding team-highs both in RBI, with 111, and in home runs, with 36. Zach McKinstry is the team’s best hitter with a .261 batting average.

Chris Paddack (R) is the projected starter for the Tigers, and he has a 5-11 record, 5.27 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox Betting Trends: September 28, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: TBD

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Tigers have lost each of their last seven road games against the Red Sox following a win.
• The Red Sox have won each of their last six games against the Tigers following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last six games against the Tigers following a home loss.
• The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven road games against the Red Sox following a win.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against the Tigers at Fenway Park.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in 11 of their last 13 day games at Fenway Park against AL Central opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Chris Paddack      Record this season: 5-11      ERA: 5.27
• Road Record: 2-6
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 1-1

Why the Detroit Tigers will win

• The Tigers have won each of their last eight Sunday games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last four day games against American League opponents.
• The Tigers have covered the run line in each of their last 10 Sunday day games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine home games.
• The Red Sox have lost the first inning in three of their last four day games.
• The Tigers have led after 3 innings in six of their last eight day games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five day games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Tigers’ last five road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Red Sox’s last four day games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 15 of the Tigers’ last 17 day games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Red Sox’s last six day games against American League opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Trevor Story has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in day games.
• Alex Bregman has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances against the Tigers.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one hit in 15 of his last 16 appearances in day games against AL Central teams that held a winning record.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Javier Baez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine road appearances against AL East opponents.
• Gleyber Torres has hit a home run in four of his last nine appearances in day games against AL East teams that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (320).
• The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for hits this season (1407).
• The Tigers rank 30th in the league for steals this season (60).
• The Tigers rank 3rd in the league for triples this season (36).

Tigers vs Red Sox Prediction

The Tigers are 6-1 in their last 7 meetings against the Red Sox, and both teams are tied 3-3 wins in their last 6 meetings in Boston.

The Tigers cliched their playoff spot with yesterday’s win, so both teams have nothing to play for. The Red Sox have not announced a starter yet, and the Tigers are sending Chris Paddack on the mound, who has been mediocre at best this season, and coming into this matchup in terrible form, with a 6.38 ERA across his last 5 starts. In his only start against the Red Sox this season, he gave up 3 runs, and I don’t think the Tigers will have too much interested in winning this one. Take the Red Sox to bounce back and win at home in the regular season finale.