Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 9-25-24 MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, September 25th at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in the series.

Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays are 73-85 this year and they have lost five games in a row. Toronto has dropped the first two games in this series and they have allowed 10 runs in the series. Prior to this series, the Blue Jays lost all three against the Rays, lost two out of three against the Rangers, and swept the Cardinals. Toronto is 4-8 in their last 12 games and they are last in the AL East. 

The Toronto pitching staff has a 4.23 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .242 opponent batting average. The Blue Jays’ offense has scored 658 runs with a .241 batting average and a .313 on-base percentage. Vladimir Guerrero is batting .324 with 30 home runs and 102 RBI’s for the Blue Jays this season. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 80-78 this season and they have won four games in a row. Boston has won the first two games in this series by scores of 4-1 and 6-5. Prior to this series, the Red Sox won two out of three against the Twins, lost two out of three against the Rays, and lost three out of four against the Yankees. Boston is 6-6 in their last 12 games and they are third in the AL East. 

The Boston pitching staff has a 4.04 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .245 opponent batting average. The Red Sox offense has scored 744 runs with a .253 batting average and a .320 on-base percentage. Jarren Duran is batting .285 with 21 home runs and 75 RBI’s for the Red Sox this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Toronto is Kevin Gausman, who is 13-11 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 175.0 innings pitched this year. Gausman has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Richard Fitts, who is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 15.2 innings pitched this season. Fitts has allowed zero earned runs in three starts this year (15.2 IP). 

Why the Blue Jays will beat the Red Sox

• The Blue Jays have won eight of their last nine night games at Rogers Centre following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last four night games after going to extra innings.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last five games after going to extra innings.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four games against AL East opponents following a road win.

Why the Red Sox will beat the Blue Jays

• The Red Sox have won each of their last 10 games as underdogs against the Blue Jays following a win.
• The Blue Jays have lost eight of their last nine games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games as underdogs against the Blue Jays following a win.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Blue Jays’ last eight games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Red Sox’s last seven games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last eight road games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last seven games.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded a Double in three of the Blue Jays’ last four home games against AL opponents.
• Kevin Gausman has recorded a win in each of his last five appearances with the Blue Jays as favorites against AL opponents.
• Ernie Clement has recorded at least one Single in 10 of the Blue Jays’ last 11 night games.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit a home run in five of the Blue Jays’ last nine home games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Alejandro Kirk has recorded at least one hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last 12 night games.
• Alejandro Kirk has recorded at least one RBI in eight of his last nine appearances with the Blue Jays as home favorites.
• Alejandro Kirk has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 12 appearances at Rogers Centre.
• Daulton Varsho has scored at least one run in six of his last seven home appearances.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four road appearances against the Blue Jays.
• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one Single in each of the Red Sox’s last seven Wednesday games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Rafael Devers has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with the Red Sox as underdogs against the Blue Jays.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 appearances at Rogers Centre against opponents that held a losing record.
• Rafael Devers has scored a run in four of his last five appearances at Rogers Centre.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one total base in 14 of his last 15 appearances at Rogers Centre against AL opponents that held a losing record.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 

Boston comes into this game after winning the first two games in this series and they are still alive in the AL Wild Card race. The Red Sox are most likely going to be eliminated in the next few days, but they are playing very well right now. Boston is 43-37 on the road this year, while Toronto is 38-39 at home.

The Blue Jays are starting Kevin Gausman, who has been very good over his last five outings. The Red Sox are turning to Richard Fitts, who hasn’t allowed an earned run in his three outings this season. I don’t trust the Toronto offense at all and with these two pitchers on the mound, I like the under here.