Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction 7-5-24 Picks

In this article we will formulate a Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 5th at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.

Nationals Look to Stay Hot at Home 

The Washington Nationals are 41-46 this season and they have lost three of their last five games. Washington is coming off of a series split with the Mets, where they won two games and lost two games. Prior to that series, the Nationals lost two out of three against the Rays, lost all three against the Padres, and won two out of three against the Rockies. Washington is 9-4 in their last 13 home games, but they are fourth in the NL East. 

The Washington pitching staff has a 3.96 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .250 opponent batting average. The Nationals offense has scored 358 runs with a .235 batting average and a .304 on base percentage. CJ Abrams is batting .279 with 13 home runs and 43 RBI’s for the Nationals this season. Washington has allowed at least five runs in four of their last five games. 

Cardinals are Playing Well 

The St. Louis Cardinals are 45-41 this year and they have won three of their last four games. St. Louis is coming off of a series win against Pittsburgh, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Cardinals split four games with the Reds, won two out of three against the Braves, and swept the Giants in three games. St. Louis is 9-4 in their last 13 games and they are second in the NL Central. 

The St. Louis pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average. The Cardinals offense has scored 342 runs with a .240 batting average and a .307 on base percentage. Alec Burleson is batting .283 with 13 home runs and 42 RBI’s for the Cardinals this season. St. Louis has allowed three runs or fewer in six of their last eleven games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Patrick Corbin, who is 1-8 with a 5.49 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP over 95.0 innings pitched this year. Corbin has allowed three earned runs or more in three of his last five outings. The projected starting pitcher for St. Louis is Sonny Gray, who is 9-5 with a 2.98 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP over 87.2 innings pitched this season. Gray has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. 

Why the Nationals will beat the Cardinals

• The Cardinals have lost each of their last seven road games following an extra innings win.
• The Nationals have won each of their last four games as underdogs following a home win.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line each of their last eight night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in seven of the Cardinals’ last eight games.

Why the Cardinals will beat the Nationals

• The Nationals have lost 11 of their last 12 night games at Nationals Park following a win.
• The Cardinals have won four of their last five night games against NL East opponents.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven night games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Cardinals have covered the run line in 14 of their last 17 games at Nationals Park against teams that held a losing record.
• The Cardinals have led after 3 innings in each of their last three night games against NL East opponents.
• The Cardinals have led after 5 innings in each of their last four night games against the Nationals.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Nationals’ last nine night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Cardinals’ last eight games as favorites against the Nationals have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last eight night games between the Cardinals and Nationals.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cardinals’ last six games.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• Jesse Winker has recorded a Double in four of his last five home appearances against the Cardinals after playing the previous day.
• Jesse Winker has hit a home run in three of the Nationals’ last six home games against NL opponents.
• CJ Abrams has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Nationals’ last four games against NL Central opponents.
• CJ Abrams has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Nationals’ last seven games against the Cardinals.
• Lane Thomas has scored at least one run in eight of the Nationals’ last nine games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Keibert Ruiz has recorded at least one Single in each of his last four appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Patrick Corbin has recorded five or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances against the Cardinals.
• Luis Garcia has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 home appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Brendan Donovan has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Brendan Donovan has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Cardinals’ last six games as road favorites.
• Sonny Gray has recorded six or more strikeouts in 13 of his last 15 appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Sonny Gray has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL East opponents .
• Willson Contreras has scored a run in each of his last four appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Brendan Donovan has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against the Nationals.
• Tommy Edman has recorded a Double in three of his last four road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Lars Nootbaar has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Cardinals as favorites against NL opponents.
• Tommy Edman has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight appearances in night games.

Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction 

St. Louis comes into this series two games below .500 on the road this season, but they are playing very well right now and they are currently second in the NL Central. Washington is 19-21 at home this year and while they have struggled over the last few weeks, they have been very good at home recently. The Cardinals pitching staff has been solid over the last few weeks and they will have Sonny Gray on the mound, who has a WHIP just below one. Patrick Corbin has been decent in his last few starts for Washington, but his season numbers are terrible. I think Gray is going to have another solid outing here and my Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals prediction is for this game to go under the total.