Yankees vs Diamondbacks Prediction 4/3/25 MLB Picks Today

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the New York Yankees meet on Thursday in MLB action from Yankee Stadium. This will be the finale in a three-game series. Here’s a Yankees vs Diamondbacks prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Yankees vs Diamondbacks pick.

Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Diamondbacks took on the Chicago Cubs in their opening series last weekend. Arizona managed to split that four-game set with losses Thursday 10-6 and Saturday 4-3 among wins 8-1 in game two and 10-6 Sunday. In the final victory, Arizona’s Josh Naylor helped pace a great offensive outing with two hits, two runs, three walks, and an RBI.

On Tuesday, versus the Yankees, the Diamondbacks gave New York their first loss of the year, powering out a 7-5 victory. The key swing in the game came during the eighth inning, as Arizona turned a 4-2 deficit into a 7-4 advantage courtesy of Eugenio Suarez’s grand slam. Corbin Carroll added a two-run shot of his own, plating two runs along the way.

In the Wednesday game, Arizona got off to a great start with four runs in the first two innings. The Diamondbacks didn’t score from there but still held on for the win 4-3. Lourdes Gurriel’s first-inning homer (a two-run shot) got things started.

In the starter slot for the Thursday finale, the Diamondbacks will send out Merrill Kelly. In his lone outing so far this year, Kelly pitched 5.1 innings with one earned run in a victory. Kelly has a career record of 54-44 with a 3.81 ERA in 141 total starts. The D-backs will take on the Orioles after this series.

New York Yankees Betting Preview

Over on the Yankees’ side, they posted a great effort in their opener series versus the Brewers. New York scored a whopping 36 runs across three games (all victories), including 20 in an 11-run victory on Saturday. In the Sunday win 12-3, the Yankees’ Jazz Chisholm finished with two homers, five RBI, three runs, and three hits.

Matched up against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, the Yankees got 5.0 innings and two earned out of starter Will Warren, but a couple of the bullpen guys (Tim Hill and Mark Leiter Jr.) faltered with a combined five earned in 0.2 innings on three hits and two walks. Ben Rice, Anthony Volpe, and Jasson Dominguez each had a solo homer.

In the Wednesday matchup, New York showed some late life in the ninth inning on the way to six team hits, but it wasn’t enough to bridge the gap. Starting pitcher Carlos Rodon finished with 6.0 innings, four earned, three hits, and five Ks with four walks.

Carlos Carrasco is in the starting role for the Yankees on Thursday. This year, in his first game, Carrasco went 2.0 frames with three earned runs. Over his career, Carrasco is 110-103 with a 4.16 ERA in 325 games (277 starts) total.

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Yankees have won four of their last five games following a home loss.
• The favorites have covered the run line in 13 of the Yankees’ last 16 games.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight Thursday games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Yankees have led after 3 innings in 10 of their last 12 games as home favorites.
• The Yankees have won the first inning in four of their last five games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Yankees have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games.

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won each of their last 10 games against American League opponents following a road win.
• The Yankees have lost seven of their last eight night games against National League opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last 14 road games following a road win.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against National League opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in each of their last six games against American League opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have won the first inning in four of their last five night games against AL East opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games as road underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Yankees’ last seven home games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Diamondbacks’ last six night games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Yankees’ last eight games as home favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Diamondbacks’ last five games.

Yankees vs Diamondbacks Prediction

I might take a stab at the Diamondbacks in this one. Arizona needs a great pitching performance in order to keep the Yankees’ bats in check, though. Kelly should be able to start things out fairly well if he can keep it going. In his first start versus the Cubs, Kelly was effective on 5.1 innings, one earned, three hits, and four walks in a win. As for Carrasco, he gave up three earned on five hits in just 2.0 innings as he finished off the blowout win Saturday. He’ll need to be sharper here, obviously.

Arizona fell into an offensive slump after the first two innings Wednesday, resulting in just three team hits in the victory. It was something of an odd win, but the Diamondbacks aren’t complaining. With New York coming into this series hot after a great weekend, it’s hard to imagine that they’re on the brink of a sweep, but here we are. Arizona needs to stay sharp on both sides if they’re going to pull this off, though. I’m probably staying away from this one.