Yankees vs Rays Prediction 7/28/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Yankees vs Rays prediction for this MLB game on Monday, July 28th at Yankee Stadium in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are 57-48 this year after they lost two out of three against Philadelphia by scores of 5-12, 4-9, and 4-3. In their game three win, New York trailed 2-0 in the second inning, but scored the next four runs to get the win. The Yankees recorded six hits in the game and they were led by McMahon, who went 2-3 with two RBIs in the win. New York started Rodon, who allowed four hits and three earned runs over 5.1 innings for the win, while Williams picked up the save. 

Prior to that series, the Yankees lost two out of three against the Blue Jays, but did win two out of three against the Braves before that. New York has lost four of their last six games and they are currently second in the AL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .228 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 543 runs with a .254 batting average and a .333 on base percentage this season. Cody Bellinger has led New York with 19 home runs and 58 RBIs, while Jazz Chisholm has added 18 home runs and 48 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Cam Schlittler, who is 1-0 with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP over 10.1 innings pitched this year. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 53-53 this season after they lost all three games against Cincinnati by scores of 2-7, 2-6, and 1-2. In their game three loss, Tampa Bay cut the deficit to 2-1 in the eighth inning, but couldn’t find the tying run. The Rays recorded just three hits in the game and they were led by Walls, who went 2-3 with one home run and one RBI in the loss. TB started Baz, who allowed five hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings for the loss, while Montgomery, Englert, and Seymour combined for 3.0 scoreless innings. 

Prior to that series, the Rays lost two out of three against the White Sox, but did win two out of three against the Orioles before that. Tampa Bay has lost six of their last seven games and they are currently fourth in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a .238 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 488 runs with a .255 batting average and a .320 on base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with 26 home runs and 68 RBIs, while Yandy Diaz has added 18 home runs and 61 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Drew Rasmussen, who is 7-5 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 95.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Rays will beat the Yankees

• The Yankees have lost each of their last six games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have won each of their last five games as underdogs against the Yankees following a road loss.
• The Rays have covered the run line in 15 of their last 16 games against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in six of their last eight night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Yankees have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have won the first inning in six of their last eight night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Yankees’ last nine games as favorites against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Rays’ last four road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Yankees’ last four games as home favorites against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Rays’ last five games as underdogs against AL East opponents.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Ryan McMahon has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances in night games.
• Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 17 appearances in night games.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances against the Yankees.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Danny Jansen has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against AL East opponents.
• Chandler Simpson ranks 3rd in the league in Steals (32) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (168).
• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for slugging percentage this season (.454).
• The Rays rank 1st in the league for steals this season (138).
• The Rays are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.

Yankees vs Rays Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this matchup after losing a series over the weekend, but New York did win on Sunday and will be at home. The Yankees are 31-21 at home this year, while the Rays are 22-25 on the road. Tampa Bay has faded in the race for the AL East and they will be starting Rasmussen, who has allowed a total of four earned runs and nine hits in his last 8.0 innings of work. New York is going with Schlittler, who has allowed five earned runs, 11 hits, and five walks over 10.1 innings in two starts. I don’t love what I have seen from Schlittler and without Judge in the lineup, I am going with the Rays.