UFC Vegas 18: Michael Johnson vs. Clay Guida Picks, Odds and Predictions

Michael Johnson and Clay Guida are fighting at UFC Vegas 18 on Saturday, February 6, 2021 on ESPN+. 

In this lightweight (155lb) bout, we have Michael Johnson vs. Clay Guida. Johnson is fighting out of Springfield, Missouri. He is entering this bout as a -220 favorite. He is currently on a three-fight losing streak. In these three fights, he lost to Thiago Moises, Steven Ray and Josh Emmett.. Before these losses, he was on a two fight winning streak. He has a professional MMA record of 19-16-0 and has 8 wins by KO/TKO (42%), 2 submissions (11%), and 9 decisions (47%). 

Guida is fighting out of Round Lake, Illinois.  He is entering this fight as a +180 underdog. Guida is currently on a two fight losing streak. In those last two fights, he lost to Bobby Green and Jim Miller. Before those losses, he won against BJ Penn. He has notable wins over Erik Koch, Anthony Pettis and Rafael Dos Anjos. He has a professional MMA record of 35-20-0 and has 7 wins via KO/TKO (20%), 13 submissions (37%), and 14 decisions (40%).  

Johnson has been fighting in the UFC since 2010. Guida made his UFC debut in 2006. To say the least, both of these fighters’ are past their prime. Johnson has beat some of the best names in the sport such as Dustin Poirier, Edson Barboza, Joe Lauzon and Andre Fili. Johnson should have a going  significant striking advantage in this fight. The clearest path for victory for Johnson is keeping this fight on the feet. I don’t predict there to be a knockout or submission and there is no value betting Johnson as a -220 favorite. The value is in a prop bet. For these reasons, my pick is…