UFC 258: Ian Heinisch vs. Kelvin Gastelum Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Kelvin Gastelum and Ian Heinisch fight Saturday in UFC 258 at the UFC Apex.

Kelvin Gastelum enters this fight with a 15-6-1 record and has won 40 percent of his fights by knockout. Gastelum has lost four of his last six fights and is coming off a July loss to Jack Hermansson. Gastelum is averaging 3.72 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Gastelum is averaging 0.87 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 37 percent. Gastelum is coming off a first round submission loss at UFC Fight Island 2 where he landed just one strike. Gastelum has now lost each of his last three fights, and he’s looking for his first victory since UFC 224. Gastelum comes from a wrestling and boxing background, and he’s a black belt in 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu. Gastelum has such great technique to his standup and puts together some of the cleanest combinations regardless of weight class. Gastelum also has one of the tougher chins in the sport and has yet to be knocked out despite now six career losses. Gastelum has decent takedown defense and three of his four career submissions have come via rear-naked choke. Once Gastelum finds an opening and gets his timing down, he’s highly aggressive and is looking to put away his opponent. This will be Gastelum’s fourth career fight in Las Vegas.

Ian Heinisch enters this fight with a 14-3 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by decision. Heinisch has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off a June win over Gerald Meerschaert. Heinisch is averaging 3.62 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Heinisch is averaging 1.16 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 19 percent. Heinisch is coming off a first round knockout at UFC 250 where he landed 22 total strikes and 80 percent of his significant strikes. Heinisch is now 4-2 under the UFC banner and four of his last six wins overall have been knockouts. Heinisch is a crafty fighter on the feet, as he dodges strikes well and kind of baits his opponent to set up the counter. Heinisch has raw power in both hands and finishes fights quickly with ground and pound. Heinisch is a striker at heart, but he does control top position on the canvas well and his two submission wins have come by scarf hold armlock. This will be Heinisch’s fourth career fight in Las Vegas.

Gastelum is going to be the favorite for obvious reasons and while he’s riding a three-fight losing streak, all of his recent opponents have been quality guys, so I’m not completely down on his current form. Gastelum is also in desperate need of a victory if he’s going to keep himself in the running for big fights. With that said, Heinisch is no pushover and has the boxing and craftiness to hang around on the feet. Gastelum has also run hot and cold lately, and you’re never quite sure which version you’re going to get these days. The line is correct and Gastelum wins if he’s on, but there are some question marks here.

I’ll take a shot at the plus money.