UFC Vegas 21: Belal Muhammad vs Leon Edwards Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 21 at the UFC APEX.

Leon Edwards enters this fight with a 18-3 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by decision. Edwards has won each of his last eight fights and is coming off a July (2019) win over Rafael dos Anjos. Edwards is averaging 2.53 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Edwards is averaging 1.39 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 31 percent. Edwards is coming off a decision win at UFC on ESPN 4 where he landed 129 total strikes and 47 percent of his significant strikes. Edwards hasn’t lost a fight since UFC on Fox 17 more than five years ago, but he’s been out of the octagon forever due to COVID-19 restrictions, so it will be interesting to see if there’s any potential rust. Edwards entered the UFC as a known powerful striker, but it’s his heavy wrestling approach that’s helped him string together all of these victories. Edwards is also a highly effective fighter in the clinch and has good use of his knees and elbows as well. Edwards is a crafty southpaw who can be tricky for his opponents when standing up and he’s never been finished in his career. This will be Edwards’ first career fight in Las Vegas.

Belal Muhammad enters this fight with a 18-3 record and has won 72 percent of his fights by decision. Muhammad has won eight of his last nine fights and is coming off a February win over Dhiego Lima. Muhammad is averaging 4.86 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Muhammad is averaging 2.03 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 28 percent. Muhammad is coming off a decision win at UFC 258 where he landed 136 total strikes and 48 percent of his significant strikes. Muhammad has now won four straight fights and is 9-3 under the UFC banner. Muhammad has proven to be a balanced fighter who lands a great deal of strikes on his feet, but he’s also a successful takedown artist with a great gas tank that’s allowed him to win 12 of his 14 career decisions. Muhammad usually always gets the fight where he wants and it, and he does a great job of controlling the pace and not allowing his opponent to dictate much. At 32 years old, Muhammad has really settled in and is starting to make a name in the welterweight division, and this would be his biggest victory yet. This will be Muhammad’s fifth career fight in Las Vegas.

Muhammad is a live dog given what he’s shown us up to this point and the fact his wrestling can hang in there with Edwards. You also have to question the form of Edwards, as he hasn’t fought in forever and usually I shy away from potential rust. However, Edwards is the better fighter no matter how you slice it, and he should have the edge on the feet with his craftiness while his takedown defense will allow him to determine where the fight ends up. This is also a step up in competition and a very quick turnaround for Muhammad, who just fought.

Give me Edwards, and I’ll take him in a decision to give us a better return.