MMA

UFC Vegas 29: Seung Woo Choi vs Julian Erosa Picks, Odds, Predictions

Julian Erosa vs Seung Woo Choi
June 19, 2021 11:10 pm EDT
The Line: Julian Erosa +115 / Seung Woo Choi -135
(Click here for latest betting odds)

Julian Erosa and Seung Woo Choi fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 29 at the UFC Apex. Erosa enters this fight with a 25-8 record and has won 44 percent of his fights by knockout. Choi enters this fight with a 9-3 record and has won 56 percent of his fights by knockout.  

Erosa has split his last six fights and is coming off a February win over Nate Landwehr. He is averaging 5.07 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Erosa is averaging 1.32 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 54 percent. 

Erosa is coming off a first round knockout win at UFC Vegas 19. In the victory, Erosa landed 17 total strikes and 65 percent of his significant strikes. Erosa looks for four straight wins for the first time since 2014-15.

Who did our Experts Pick?
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Erosa is an exciting fighter who has finished 22 of his 25 victories and is just as effective on the feet as on the canvas. Erosa has never been submitted in his career. He’s very creative with his strikes and has a little Anthony Pettis to his game where he’ll mix in a kick or knee out of anywhere. This will be Erosa’s sixth career fight in Las Vegas.

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Choi has won four of his last six fights and is coming off a February win over Youssef Zalal. He is averaging 3.17 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 41 percent. Choi is averaging 1.03 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 57 percent. 

Choi is coming off a decision win over UFC Vegas 18. In the victory, Choi landed 73 total strikes and produced two takedowns. Choi now looks for three straight wins for the first time since starting his career with a 5-0 record.

Seung is a Muay Thai style fighter with a deep background in the art form, which includes a bronze medal in 2010. Choi has five career knockouts and does some of his best work with his legs. However, Choi has shown to have legit knockout pop in his hands, as some of his knockouts have been violent. 

Choi doesn’t have a submission victory in his career. This will be Choi’s third career fight in Las Vegas.

This should be a fun fight and could go either way, but Erosa and the plus money is where the value is at. Erosa is not only the more accurate striker with legit knockout power, but he’s also a finish machine on the ground. We also have to factor in Erosa’s tricky southpaw stance and his unpredictability. There’s always value to getting a finish fighter at plus money, as they’re never out of a fight.

I’ll back Erosa here. 

Randy Chambers's Free Pick:
Julian Erosa +115
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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA.

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