UFC on ESPN 26: Marion Reneau vs Miesha Tate Picks, Odds, Predictions

Miesha Tate and Marion Reneau fight Saturday in UFC on ESPN 26 at the UFC Apex. Tate enters this fight with a 18-7 record and has won 44 percent of her fights by decision. Reneau enters this fight with a 9-7-1 record and has won 56 percent of her fights by knockout.

Tate has won five of her last seven fights and is coming off a November (2016) loss to Raquel Pennington. Tate is averaging 1.93 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 41 percent. Tate is averaging 2.06 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 31 percent. Tate is coming off a decision loss at UFC 205 where she ate 111 total strikes and landed 48 total strikes. After the loss, Tate announced her retirement and will now make her return nearly five years later. Tate is now nearly 35 years old and hopes to avoid three straight losses for the first time in her career. Tate comes from a submission wrestling background and has a purple belt in BJJ. She’s most know for her heavy wrestling style and has seven career submission victories. Tate will mix in strong overhands and hooks on the feet and has a couple knockouts, but she’s most comfortable on the ground. It will be interesting to see what Tate has added to her game during so much time off. This will be Tate’s sixth career fight in Nevada.

Reneau has lost her last four fights and is coming off a March loss against Macy Chiasson. Reneau is averaging 3.29 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 41 percent. Reneau is averaging 0.66 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 63 percent. Reneau is coming off a decision loss at UFC Vegas 22 where she landed 59 total strikes and ate 92 total strikes. She’s now lost four straight fights and hasn’t won since UFC on Fox 28. Reneau is really solid defensively, as she does a good job of getting in and out with her strikes, and she uses her legs well to keep her opponent honest. While Reneau isn’t much of a takedown artist and has subpar takedown defense, she does display a good ground and pound attack and has five knockout victories. Reneau is a black belt in and has a Muay Thai background, and she’s never been finished in her career despite seven losses. This will be Reneau’s fourth career fight in Nevada.

I have a thing where I don’t bet fighters coming off a long layoff, as you have no idea what to expect and don’t know just how much rust there is. Tate hasn’t fought in nearly five years, she’s had a couple children during the time away and who knows what to expect now. However, Reneau isn’t in great form, even if she’s been consistently fighting. Reneau also doesn’t have the best takedown defense in the world. This is a fight Tate should be able to control with her wrestling style and get comfortable rather quickly.

May be a bit risky, but give me Tate to win her return.