UFC 265: Ciryl Gane vs Derrick Lewis Picks, Odds, and Predictions

Derrick Lewis and Ciryl Gane fight Saturday in UFC 265 at the Toyota Center. Lewis enters this fight with a 25-7 record and has won 80 percent of his fights by knockout. Gane enters this fight with a 9-0 record and has won 33 percent of his fights by submission. 

Lewis has won seven of his last nine fights and is coming off a February win over Curtis Blaydes. Lewis is averaging 2.59 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Lewis is averaging 0.52 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 26 percent. Lewis is coming off a second round knockout at UFC Vegas 19 that earned performance of the night. Lewis has won four straight fights and now holds the UFC record with 12 heavyweight knockouts. There’s no surprises with Lewis when he steps into the octagon, as he’s a powerful striker who has produced knockouts in 18 of his last 22 wins. With a boxing background and heavy hands, Lewis looks to land that one shot that turns a fight. Lewis doesn’t have much of a ground game, and he has a reputation for tiring quickly, so he’s going to live and die with his standup striking. However, Lewis has built his stamina over the years and looks more comfortable after the first round. Lewis is a boxer with a blue belt in BJJ, and he will have the edge with most fighters on the feet. This will be Lewis’ 11th career fight in Texas, his residence.

This will be Gane’s third fight this year, and he’s coming off a June win over Alexander Volkov. Gane is averaging 5.13 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 54 percent. Gane is averaging 0.82 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 21 percent. Gane is coming off a decision win at UFC Vegas 30 where he landed 139 total strikes and 52 percent of his significant strikes. Gane is 6-0 under the UFC banner and this will be his 10th fight since turning pro three years ago. Gane comes from a Muay Thai background that includes a 7-0 pro record, and his combination of athleticism, power and size makes him an intriguing fighter in this division. Gane works well behind his jab, throws powerful overhands and can be tough to pick up at times due to an awkward style. Gane does some of his best work in the clinch and his cardio is impressive for his size. Gane still has to prove he can wrestle and grapple, but up to this point he’s a dangerous and quickly rising 31-year-old out of France. This will be Gane’s first career fight in Texas.

Gane should be favored, as he’s the more balanced fighter, has the size advantage and his kicking game throws a wrinkle into the standup. With that said, we’re getting three times our money with one of the strongest heavyweights in the world, a guy who shakes things when landing strikes. Lewis has also gotten better with his takedown defense and cardio over the last couple of years. We’re simply getting a quality fighter at a massive price who has gotten better over the years.

I’m not sure how you turn down Lewis and the big plus money.