Alex Oliveira vs Niko Price
October 2, 2021 11:30 pm EDT
The Line: Niko Price -180 / Alex Oliveira +155
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Alex Oliveira and Niko Price fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 193 at the UFC Apex. Oliveira enters this fight with a 22-10-1 record and has won 55 percent of his fights by knockout. Price enters this fight with a 14-5 record and has won 71 percent of his fights by knockout.
Oliveira has lost five of his last seven fights and is coming off an April loss to Randy Brown. Oliveira is averaging 2.86 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Oliveira is averaging 2.37 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 37 percent. Oliveira is coming off a first round submission loss at UFC 261, which has now been the result in each of his last two fights. Oliveira hasn’t won a fight since UFC on ESPN 14. Oliveira is a powerful striker with a kickboxing background and a dark blue belt in Muay Thai and a blue belt in BJJ. Oliveira puts a lot into his shots, but he’s also a terrific submission artist who works the back quickly and has produced submissions in five career victories. Oliveira is a tough dude who worked construction and was a bull rider before training for MMA, and he brings that working man attitude each time to the octagon. This will be Oliveira’s third career fight in Nevada.
Price has split his last eight fights and is coming off a July loss to Michel Pereira. Price is averaging 5.29 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 41 percent. Price is averaging 0.75 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 20 percent. Price is coming off a decision loss at UFC 264 where he landed 120 total strikes and was taken three times. Price still looks to win his first fight since UFC Fight Night 161. Price is a brown belt in BJJ, and he’s effective with his strikes standing up, in the clinch and on the ground. Price isn’t the most effective striker in terms of accuracy, but he’s got some pop when he does land and has this wild, aggressive style that can really overwhelm his opponent. Price isn’t the most technically sound or most disciplined fighter in the division, but his 10 career knockouts indicate he only needs one shot. Price has seen just two of his 21 career fights go the distance. This will be Price’s fourth career fight in Nevada.
I’m not trying to get behind either of these fighters in their current form, but I am looking at the distance of the fight. Price never sees decisions and Oliveira is a finishing style fighter who hits hard and has a polished ground game. Two finishers with high work rates. I’ll take my chances by predicting an early finish.
Give me under the 1.5 rounds.