Mackenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez
October 9, 2021 5:50 pm EDT
The Line: Marina Rodriguez +151 / Mackenzie Dern -176
(Click here for latest betting odds)
Mackenzie Dern and Marina Rodriguez fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 194 at the UFC Apex. Dern enters this fight with a 11-1 record and has won 64 percent of her fights by submission. Rodriguez enters this fight with a 14-1-2 record and has won 50 percent of her fights by decision.
Dern has won her last four fights and is coming off a April win over Nina Nunes. Dern is averaging 3.64 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Dern is averaging 0.51 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 10 percent. Dern is coming off a first round submission victory at UFC on ABC 2 that earned performance of the night honors. Dern has earned performance of the night honors in three of her last four fights. Dern is a black belt in BJJ and has possibly the most decorated background in submission wrestling, and she’s won countless medals in various events. Dern is deadly when she can dictate the pace of the fight and get things on the canvas. The daughter of Wellington Dias, Dern was born into a grappling and judo family, and her scrambling ability is as good as it gets. There’s no secrets on what Dern wants to do in that octagon and you have to like her chances if she gets the style of fight she wants. This will be Dern’s sixth career fight in Nevada.
Rodriguez has won seven of her last 10 fights and is coming off a May win against Michelle Waterson. Rodriguez is averaging 4.89 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Rodriguez is averaging 0.28 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33 percent. Rodriguez is coming off a decision win at UFC on ESPN 24 where she landed 144 total strikes. Rodriguez now has a chance to win three fights this year and put her name in the hat for fighter of the year. Rodriguez is a great athlete who grew up playing all sorts of sports, and she’s a purple belt in BJJ and a dark blue belt in Muay Thai. Rodriguez is a lengthy fighter who can throw impressive overhands, and she loves mixing in leg kicks. Rodriguez is aggressive with her knees in the clinch and has good takedown defense. Rodriguez usually gets the fight where she wants it and is aggressive with her attack, mainly her kicks. This will be Rodriguez’s third career fight in Nevada.
You can make a case for either of these fighters and Rodriguez at plus money is intriguing. Rodriguez has been the more accurate striker and she has a size advantage with a longer reach. With that said, Dern has been on an absolute tear lately and has been the most impressive fighter overall on her last few cards. Dern can also drag Rodriguez into those deep waters, and while her BJJ has improved over the years, she’s no match for Dern in her comfort zone.
Should be a good fight, but I have no choice but to side with Dern for a fifth straight victory.