UFC Vegas 45: Chris Daukaus vs Derrick Lewis Picks, Predictions, Odds

Derrick Lewis and Chris Daukaus fight Saturday in UFC Vegas 45 at the UFC Apex. Lewis enters this fight with a 25-8 record and has won 80 percent of his fights by knockout. Daukaus enters this fight with a 12-3 record and has won 92 percent of his fights by knockout.

Lewis has won seven of his last 10 fights and is coming off a August loss to Ciryl Gane. Lewis is averaging 2.49 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Lewis is averaging 0.49 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 25 percent. Lewis is coming off a knockout loss at UFC 265 where he was fighting for the interim UFC Heavyweight Championship. In the bout, Lewis landed 16 total strikes and ate 112 total strikes. Lewis looks to avoid back-to-back losses for the second time in his career. There are no surprises with Lewis when he steps into the octagon, as he’s a powerful striker who has produced knockouts in 18 of his last 22 wins. With a boxing background and heavy hands, Lewis looks to land that one shot that turns a fight. Lewis doesn’t have much of a ground game, and he has a reputation for tiring quickly, so he’s going to live and die with his standup striking. However, Lewis has built his stamina over the years and looks more comfortable after the first round. Lewis is a boxer with a blue belt in BJJ, and he will have the edge with most fighters on the feet. This will be Lewis’ eighth career fight in Nevada.

Daukaus has won five straight fights and is coming off a September win over Shamil Abdurakhimov. Daukaus is averaging 9.03 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 53 percent. Daukaus is averaging 0 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 0 percent. Daukaus is coming off. Knockout win at UFC 266, a bout that earned performance of the night. In fact, Daukaus has earned such honors in each of his last three fights. Daukaus is 4-0 under the UFC banner and has a chance to win three fights this year to put his name in the conversation for fighter of the year. Daukaus is a black belt in BJJ, but it’s his knockout power that draws most of the attention. Daukaus has produced knockouts in 11 of his 12 victories, and 13 of his 15 fights overall have resulted in knockouts. Daukaus won his only career decision that was decided five years ago. While a bit of a late bloomer at 32 years old, Daukaus has a chance to continue climbing the heavyweight rankings and soon end up with a title shot if he stays on this path. This will be Daukaus’ fourth career fight in Nevada.

Daukaus has been a machine up to this point and isn’t somebody I’m eager to bet against. His striking accuracy has been ridiculous, he has the pop, and he has a black belt in BJJ that he can tap into. Daukaus should be favored. With that said, we’re getting plus money with Lewis, somebody who has cashed in the underdog role previously. Lewis also has a three-inch reach advantage, which is key with the stand-up, especially in a smaller octagon.

I’ll take a stab with Lewis as an underdog.