UFC 272: Bryce Mitchell vs Edson Barboza Picks, Predictions, Odds

Edson Barboza and Bryce Mitchell fight Saturday in UFC 272 at the T-Mobile Arena. Barboza enters this fight with a 22-10 record and has won 59 percent of his fights by knockout. Mitchell enters this fight with a 14-0 record and has won 64 percent of his fights by submission. 

Barboza has split his last 12 fights and is coming off an August loss to Giga Chikadze. Barboza is averaging 4.11 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Barboza is averaging 0.40 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Barboza is coming off a knockout losss at UFC on ESPN 30 where he landed 33 total strikes and ate 70 total strikes. It was the fourth time Barboza has been knocked out, and he’s now lost four of his last six fights overall. At 36 years old, it’s Barboza rights the ship before folks start questioning if he lost it. Barboza is known for his leg work and is one of the best in the sport thanks to a deep kickboxing background and being a black belt in Taekwondo. Allow Barboza to stand up and fight from the outside, he’s going to pick apart his opponent and chop away for three rounds. Barboza is a black belt in Muay Thai and a black belt in BJJ as well. Barboza has a high takedown defensive percentage and doesn’t take a ton of damage on the feet. Barboza is a technical fighter who is what he is at this point and is going to be the aggressor in most fights. This will be Barboza’s seventh career fight in Nevada.

This will be Mitchell’s third fight since 2020, and he’s coming off an October (2020) win over Andre Fili. Mitchell is averaging 2.29 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 61 percent. Mitchell is averaging 3.26 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Mitchell is coming off a decision win at UFC Fight Night 181 where he landed 100 total strikes, 66 percent of his significant strikes, and had seven takedowns. Mitchell has now seen five of his last six fights end in decision, and he’s a perfect 5-0 under the UFC banner. The concern here obviously is that Mitchell hasn’t fought in about a year and a half, his longest layoff since turning pro in 2015. Mitchell is most known for his ground game and finishing ability, and he has a black belt in BJJ. Mitchell goes for the takedown as soon as there’s an opening, and he has 10 combined takedowns in his last two fights. Mitchell comes from a wrestling background and began his MMA career with eight straight submissions. It also can’t be overlooked that Mitchell has great footwork standing up and can hold his own from a striking standpoint if needed. This will be Mitchell’s third career fight in Nevada.

Barboza is a legend who still has some pop in his strikes, and it would surprise nobody if he landed something and won this fight. However, Barboza isn’t getting any younger, and he hasn’t looked great in his last few fights. There are concerns with Mitchell and the long layoff, but he’s also a young, promising fighter who hasn’t given us much reason to bet against. Mitchell has been accurate with his shots, but his ability to close the distance and get the fight where he wants it should make Barboza a bit uncomfortable. 

I have to side with Mitchell and the reasonable price.