UFC Fight Night 206: Ketlen Vieira vs Holly Holm Picks, Predictions, Odds

Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 206 at the UFC Apex. Holm enters this fight with a 14-5 record and has won 57 percent of her fights by knockout. Vieira enters this fight with a 12-2 record and has won 50 percent of her fights by decision.

Holm has split her last 10 fights and is coming off an October (2020) win over Irene Aldana. Holm is averaging 3.16 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Holm is averaging 0.81 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 30 percent. Holm is coming off a decision victory at UFC on ESPN 16 where she landed 187 total strikes and produced five takedowns. Holm has won her last three decisions, and she’ll now fight for the first time in a year and a half. Holm hasn’t fought due to hydronephrosis and knee injury. At 40 years old there’s going to be no surprises with Holm, as she comes from a boxing and kickboxing background, and she does her best when fighting from a distance where she can land power shots and throw vicious kicks to the body. Holm will press forward at times and does a wonderful job of landing combinations and pushing the pace. Holm is a blue belt in BJJ and defends takedowns at a good enough percentage to force her opponent to fight her fight. Holm also has good footwork, is an effective counterpuncher and works well behind her jab. This will be Holm’s fifth career fight in Nevada.

Vieira has won six of her last eight fights, and she’s coming off a November win over Miesha Tate. Vieira is averaging 3.07 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Vieira is averaging 1.71 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Vieira is coming off a decision win at UFC on ESPN+ 56 where she landed 156 total strikes and 42 percent of her significant strikes. Vieira has seen her last three fights go the distance, and she’s now 6-2 under the UFC banner. Vieira is a black belt in BJJ and Judo, and she uses kickboxing and wrestling a lot in her fights. Vieira is most effective in the clinch or on the ground, and she usually gets the fight where she wants it, on her terms. Vieira has an extremely high takedown defense percentage and hast never been submitted in her career. This will be Vieira’s fifth career fight in Nevada.

There’s some concern with Holm considering she’s now 40 years old and hasn’t fought in well over a year. Vieira is a quality defensive fighter who can control where this fight goes given her takedown defense and ability to takedown herself. With all that said, Holm wins this fight on paper, given her polished striking and her unique style that allows her to switch stances. Holm wins this fight, and I’ll predict a decision to shave down the price.